The clash between Arsenal and Newcastle, valid for Matchday 37 of the Premier League, is a true head-to-head for second place and a decisive step toward securing a spot in next season’s Champions League. The hosts, currently second in the table with just a two-point lead over Newcastle, must bounce back from a difficult run of form and rediscover a win they’ve been missing in the league for over a month. The Gunners, who have picked up just two points in their last three Premier League games, cannot afford any more slip-ups. A defeat or even a draw could not only cost them second place but also jeopardize Champions League qualification, considering sixth place is just five points behind with six points still available. A win over Newcastle – despite the crucial absence of suspended midfielder Mikel Merino – would all but seal their place in Europe’s top competition. The Magpies, after a slow start to the season, have shifted gears since November and now find themselves with a realistic chance of finishing second behind Liverpool. After beating the Reds in the EFL Cup Final last March, Eddie Howe’s men have grown in confidence and arrive in London focused solely on leapfrogging Arsenal. They’ve already beaten the Gunners three times this season across all competitions, and a repeat performance would see them move one point ahead with just one match to go. Any result other than a win, given the tight standings among the Champions League hopefuls, would force Newcastle to play for their European future next week at St. James’ Park against Everton.

Arsenal Recent Form and Key Stats

In their most recent Premier League fixture, Arsenal drew 2-2 against Liverpool, coming back from a two-goal deficit thanks to strikes from Martinelli and Merino. The latter was sent off after his equalizer, meaning he’ll miss the crucial clash against Newcastle.

The Gunners are in the midst of a rough patch, going winless in their last five matches across all competitions, with two draws and three defeats – including two losses to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League semi-finals.

Playing at home remains a potential advantage: at the Emirates Stadium, Mikel Arteta’s side have collected 36 points (compared to 32 on the road), with 10 wins, 6 draws, and only 2 losses. However, they haven’t won at home in their last three league games: a 1-1 draw vs Brentford, a 2-2 draw vs Crystal Palace, and a 1-2 defeat to Bournemouth.

Newcastle Recent Form and Key Stats

Newcastle come into this fixture in excellent form. In their latest league match, they defeated Chelsea 2-0 with goals from midfielders Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimarães. That win followed a 1-1 draw with Brighton and a convincing 3-0 victory over Ipswich Town.

Overall, the Magpies have lost just one of their last ten games, winning eight and drawing one. They also boast the second-best attack in the Premier League behind Liverpool, with 68 goals in 36 matches. On the flip side, they’ve conceded 45 goals – the highest among the top five teams.

Away from home, Newcastle have earned 28 of their 66 total points (8 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses). In their last five away games, they’ve claimed three wins, one draw, and one loss, scoring at least once in every outing.

Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction and Tactical Overview

Both Arsenal and Newcastle will take the field looking for all three points to secure second place and face the final matchday with greater peace of mind. A draw is of little use to the hosts, despite their current two-point advantage, as Manchester City, Chelsea, and Aston Villa are all within striking distance and could reopen the Champions League race.

The Gunners have consistently found the net at home in 2025, managing to cope with the prolonged absences of key attackers like Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz. For this match, Arteta will also be without midfielder Mikel Merino, who has often been deployed as a false nine to great effect, scoring 9 goals this season.

The Magpies, after a brief dip in form in February, are back to scoring regularly on the road. With an average of 1.6 goals per game in their last five away fixtures, it's likely that Howe's side will once again find a way past David Raya, as they’ve done in all three previous meetings with Arsenal this season – winning each time.

For these reasons, the Arsenal vs Newcastle 37th Premier League match prediction from the BetMines algorithm predicts a goal-rich game in which both teams will score.

• Arsenal vs Newcastle prediction from the BetMines algorithm predicts that both teams will score at least one goal at 61%
  
  
• Arsenal vs Newcastle prediction from the betMines algorithm predicts that at least one of the two teams will not score a goal at 39%.

Arsenal vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups

ARSENAL (4-3-3): Raya; White, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly; Ødegaard, Jorginho, Partey; Saka, Trossard, Martinelli. Manager: Mikel Arteta

NEWCASTLE (3-4-3): Pope; Krafth, Schär, Burn; Murphy, Guimarães, Tonali, Livramento; Barnes, Isak, Gordon. Manager: Eddie Howe