The FA Cup fourth round brings an exciting clash between Aston Villa and Newcastle United at Villa Park. Both Premier League sides are eager to progress in the competition, with Villa looking to extend their unbeaten run against the Magpies this season. The hosts have shown consistency and resilience in recent weeks, while Newcastle approach this tie hoping to build on their latest league victory and keep their cup hopes alive.

Aston Villa’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Aston Villa enter this fixture in strong form, having won three of their last five matches across all competitions. Their most recent outing was a 1-0 home victory over Brighton & Hove Albion on February 11, a result that reinforced their solid defensive record. Over the last five games, Villa have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match, underlining their balance between attack and defense.

In the FA Cup, Villa have recorded one win so far this season, scoring an average of 2.0 goals and conceding 1.0. They have also shown remarkable consistency at home, with no draws in their last 16 matches at Villa Park. In fact, they have avoided a draw in 28 of their last 30 games overall, a sign of their attacking intent and determination to secure results.

Historically, Villa have enjoyed success against Newcastle in this competition, including a previous FA Cup victory in the 2000/01 season. They also defeated the Magpies 2-0 in their most recent league encounter, further boosting confidence ahead of this tie. With key players like Morgan Rogers, Ollie Watkins, and Emiliano Buendia contributing regularly, Villa’s attacking options remain potent despite a few injury concerns.

Newcastle United’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Newcastle United approach this match after a much-needed 2-1 away win over Tottenham Hotspur on February 10. That result ended a difficult run of five games without a win, during which they suffered four defeats. Over their last five matches, Newcastle have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities that could be exploited by Villa’s attack.

In the FA Cup, Newcastle’s campaign has been less convincing. They have yet to record a win in regulation time this season, with their only progress coming via a penalty shootout. Their FA Cup stats show an average of 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Moreover, the Magpies have struggled historically in this competition when playing away to Premier League opposition, losing 10 of their last 13 such ties.

Despite these challenges, Newcastle remain dangerous in attack. Harvey Barnes and Anthony Gordon have combined for 22 goals this season, while Bruno Guimaraes has added nine. However, injuries to key players such as Fabian Schar, Joelinton, and Valentino Livramento could limit their options. The team’s ability to maintain intensity and defensive discipline will be crucial if they are to upset Villa at Villa Park.

Head-to-Head and Tactical Overview

The recent head-to-head record between these sides is evenly balanced, with both teams winning twice and drawing once in their last five meetings. The average goals per match in these encounters stand at 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded for each side, suggesting a competitive rivalry. Their last meeting ended in a 0-2 win for Villa on January 25, a result that underlined the hosts’ current superiority.

Villa’s defensive organization and home advantage could once again play a decisive role. They have been particularly strong at Villa Park, where they rarely drop points. Newcastle, on the other hand, will rely on quick transitions and individual brilliance from their forwards to find openings. Given both teams’ recent scoring patterns, this match could be tight, with few clear chances and a strong emphasis on tactical discipline.

• Win probabilities: Aston Villa 47%, Draw 23%, Newcastle United 30%.


• BTTS: Yes 58%, No 42%.


• Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 58%, Under 42%.

Final Analysis and BetMines Prediction

All signs point toward a closely contested FA Cup tie, but Aston Villa appear to have the edge. Their superior form, home advantage, and defensive solidity make them slight favorites to progress. Newcastle’s inconsistency and injury issues could hinder their ability to sustain pressure over 90 minutes.

Based on the latest data and probabilities, the BetMines prediction for this match is a Home Win (1) with a 47% probability. Villa’s strong home record and Newcastle’s struggles away from home support this outcome. A low-scoring affair is also possible, given both teams’ recent defensive trends.

Aston Villa vs Newcastle United prediction by BetMines:
Home Win (1) – 47% probability.