Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction: Preview and Analysis of the Match | Champions League

On Tuesday, April 15th, at Villa Park in Birmingham, Aston Villa will host Paris Saint Germain in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League 2024/25 quarter-finals. The French champions hold a 3-1 lead from the first leg at the Parc des Princes, giving them a solid advantage going into this decisive clash. Under the guidance of Luis Enrique, PSG need only a win or a draw to book their place in the semi-finals. The situation is more complex for Unai Emery's side. Aston Villa must win by at least three goals to advance directly to the next round. A two-goal win would only force extra time and possibly penalties. It’s a tough ask, but not impossible, especially considering Villa’s form at home. This season, Paris Saint Germain appear more cohesive and balanced than in recent years, finally showing the traits of a true team rather than relying on individual stars. With the Ligue 1 title already secured and a Coupe de France final on the horizon, PSG are chasing a historic treble. Despite losing in Paris and ending an impressive run of eight straight wins, Aston Villa remain a dangerous opponent. With a tactician like Emery at the helm and the likes of Marco Asensio and Marcus Rashford looking for redemption, the Villans will surely push to the limit to keep their Champions League dream alive.

Aston Villa's Recent Form & Key Stats

Aston Villa come into this Champions League fixture full of confidence after a convincing 3-0 away win over Southampton in Premier League Matchday 32. Goals from Malen, Watkins, and McGinn all came in the second half, although Asensio missed two penalties in that match.

The Villans are in excellent form, having won 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions – the only loss being the first leg against PSG. In the Champions League, their record stands at 7 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with 20 goals scored and 10 conceded in 11 games.

At Villa Park, Aston Villa remain unbeaten in this campaign with 3 wins and 1 draw in the group stage and a 3-0 victory over Club Brugge in the Round of 16. They've kept four clean sheets in five home games, conceding only twice – both in a 4-2 win against Celtic.

Paris Saint Germain's Recent Form & Key Stats

Paris Saint Germain arrive in Birmingham well-rested, as their weekend Ligue 1 fixture against Nantes was postponed by the Ligue de Football Professionnel (LFP), giving them ample time to prepare for this key encounter.

PSG’s Champions League campaign has seen 8 wins, 1 draw, and 4 defeats so far, including a narrow 0-1 home loss to Liverpool in the first leg of the Round of 16. The French giants have scored 28 goals (2.15 per game) and conceded only 11 (0.84 per game).

On the road, the Parisians have been impressive, winning their last four away matches against Salzburg, Stuttgart, Brest, and Liverpool – a clear sign of their maturity and resilience in tough environments.

Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction & Tactical Analysis

Aston Villa will need to attack from the first minute, aiming to get an early goal and reduce the aggregate deficit. They proved in the first leg that they can break down PSG’s defense, but doing so repeatedly while avoiding being exposed on the counter will be the real challenge.

Paris Saint Germain, with Marquinhos expected back in defense, will look to manage their lead and control the pace of the game through players like Vitinha, who has been a standout in midfield. The key for PSG will be to soak up pressure and hit Villa on the break with their pacey and technically gifted front line.

Luis Enrique faces selection dilemmas, especially in attack. Barcola is pushing for a starting spot, but it won’t be easy to bench Doué, Dembele, or Kvaratskhelia. On the other hand, the former Asensio expected to start again from the bench

According to the BetMines algorithm, Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain prediction for the Champions League quarter-final return leg predicts a match in which both teams will score at least one goal. 

• BetMines Algorithm prediction for Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain predicts that both teams will score at least one goal at 65%.
• BetMines Algorithm prediction for Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain predicts that at least one of the two teams will not score a goal at 35%.

Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain Predicted Lineups

Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Tielemans, Kamara; Rogers, McGinn, Rashford; Watkins Manager: Unai Emery

Paris Saint Germain (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Neves, Vitinha, Ruiz; Doué, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia. Manager: Luis Enrique