At Villa Park in Birmingham, Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur clash in the Friday night curtain-raiser that kicks off the 37th and penultimate round of the Premier League. It’s a crucial match, especially for the home side, who, looking at the table, are in the middle of a fierce Champions League race, sitting in sixth place, level on points with Chelsea, just two behind Manchester City, and three off Newcastle, who are currently fourth and third respectively. With just two matches left in the season, every single point becomes vital for the European hopes of this group of contenders. The dream for all of them — including Unai Emery’s side — is to finish in the top five and qualify for next season’s Champions League, not only for the financial benefits but also for the ability to attract top-level players, like those who joined the Spanish coach’s squad in January, particularly Marco Asensio and Marcus Rashford. The Villans come into this clash in top form, having won seven of their last eight Premier League matches, showing that they’ve bounced back from the painful eliminations in the Champions League and the FA Cup at the hands of Paris Saint-Germain and Crystal Palace. While Villa are battling hard in this dramatic season finale for a spot in the UCL, Tottenham Hotspur have clearly shifted their focus away from the league. Their only remaining goal is to win the Europa League final, which would allow them, if they beat Manchester United on May 21, to also secure a place in the 2025/26 Champions League. The big difference between the two teams heading into the Friday, May 16 match, is that the home side must win both this match and the final league game against Manchester United — interestingly, also Tottenham Hotspur’s Europa League final opponent — while Spurs can afford to rotate their squad, as they did last time out against Crystal Palace, in order to reach the final in Bilbao with their best players in peak condition and finally end a 40-year international trophy drought.

Aston Villa Recent Form and Key Stats

Putting aside the cup disappointments, Unai Emery’s men are coming off seven wins in their last eight Premier League matches. Their latest success came last Saturday with a 0-1 away win at Bournemouth, sealed by yet another goal from Ollie Watkins, who’s now at 17 goals for the season. For Villa, it was also the second consecutive clean sheet, a promising trend heading into the Tottenham Hotspur clash.

Aston Villa have won their last four home Premier League matches, including standout results against Chelsea (2-1) and Newcastle (4-1). At home, they've earned 37 of their 63 points, thanks to 18 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses, averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per match. Their last defeat at Villa Park dates back to October, a 1-2 loss to Crystal Palace in the Carabao Cup.

Tottenham Hotspur Recent Form and Key Stats

Unlike Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur’s recent joy has come solely from their European campaign, having won both legs of the Europa League semifinal against Bodø/Glimt earlier in May. In the league, however, they suffered a 0-2 home defeat to Crystal Palace last Sunday, following a 1-1 draw against West Ham the week before.

Their Premier League form has been poor, with just 38 points from 36 matches. Still, there's one encouraging stat: the attack has delivered, scoring 63 goals, one more than fifth-placed Chelsea. But the real issue has been the defense, which has conceded 59 goals — an average of 1.64 per match. Away from home, Spurs have picked up just 17 points (5 wins, 2 draws, 11 losses), with their last road victory coming on February 22, a 1-4 win at Ipswich.

Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction and Tactical Overview

If Aston Villa want to secure a Champions League spot, they must win this match and hope for slip-ups from their direct rivals. Despite the possible absence of Rashford and the confirmed suspension of Jacob Ramsey, Emery’s side should have enough to overcome a Tottenham team that’s entirely focused on their Europa League final.

Unai Emery's men defeated Tottenham Hotspur 2-1 the last time they met — in the FA Cup, with a brace from Morgan Rogers — and the feeling is that they could repeat that kind of performance in this Premier League Matchday 37 opener, taking home all three points.

What may further ease the task for the hosts is the expected squad rotation from Ange Postecoglou, who is likely to rest key players to avoid injuries. Against Crystal Palace, several regulars — including Guglielmo Vicario, Cristian Romero, Brennan Johnson, and Dominic Solanke — remained on the bench for the full 90 minutes.

For all these reasons, the Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction for Premier League Matchday 37, provided by BetMines' algorithm, leans heavily in favor of a clear home win.

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• Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction of the BetMines algorithm predicts the sign 2 at 24%.

Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur Predicted Lineups

ASTON VILLA (4-2-3-1): Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Kamara, Onana; Rogers, Asensio, McGinn; Watkins. Coach: Unai Emery

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR (4-3-3): Vicario; Porro, Danso, Davies, Spence; Gray, Bissouma, Sarr; Johnson, Richarlison, Son. Coach: Ange Postecoglou