The Coppa Italia 2025/26 Round of 16 brings an intriguing clash at the Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo, where Atalanta host Genoa on Wednesday, December 3, at 15:00. Both sides arrive in good form and with renewed confidence after recent managerial changes, promising a competitive and entertaining encounter. Atalanta, under Raffaele Palladino, have rediscovered their rhythm, while Genoa, guided by Daniele De Rossi, are enjoying a positive run of results that has lifted morale in the Ligurian camp.

Atalanta’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Atalanta approach this Coppa Italia debut full of confidence after back-to-back victories. The Bergamo side first triumphed 3-0 away to Eintracht Frankfurt in the Champions League, then followed up with a convincing 2-0 home win over Fiorentina in Serie A. These results have helped erase the memory of their 3-1 defeat to Napoli earlier in November and have restored belief among the fans. The win against Fiorentina also ended a five-match home drought that had seen four draws and one loss at the Gewiss Stadium.

In their last five matches across all competitions, the Nerazzurri have recorded three wins and two defeats, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Historically, Atalanta have been dominant in this fixture, remaining unbeaten in their last five meetings with Genoa (four wins and one draw), scoring an average of 2.8 goals per match while conceding just 0.8. They have also won at half-time in six of their last ten home Coppa Italia games, underlining their tendency to start strong in knockout competitions.

Coach Raffaele Palladino is expected to make some rotations due to the congested schedule, particularly on the flanks. Bakker is ruled out, while Scalvini remains doubtful. Up front, Gianluca Scamacca and Ademola Lookman are likely to start, offering a blend of physical presence and pace. Despite possible changes, Atalanta’s attacking depth and home advantage make them clear favorites to progress.

Genoa’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Genoa arrive in Bergamo in good spirits after a 2-1 home victory over Hellas Verona on November 29, extending their unbeaten run to four matches. Since early November, De Rossi’s men have collected eight points from four league games, showing improved consistency and resilience. In the Coppa Italia, the Rossoblù have already played two rounds, eliminating Vicenza and Empoli with convincing performances, scoring an average of 3.0 goals per match and conceding only 0.5.

However, Genoa’s away form remains a concern. They have managed just one win on the road this season, alongside two draws and three defeats. Their last victory in Bergamo dates back to 2016, and they have lost the last two head-to-heads played there. Still, the team’s recent momentum under De Rossi suggests they will not be easy opponents. The coach is expected to rotate his lineup slightly, with Vitinha and Lorenzo Colombo likely to form the attacking duo. Key absentees include Cornet, Cuenca, and Messias, all sidelined through injury.

Statistically, Genoa’s matches tend to open up after the break: there have been over 0.5 goals in the second half in 19 of their last 21 games. This trend could continue in Bergamo, especially if the visitors adopt a more aggressive approach in search of an upset. Nonetheless, facing an Atalanta side that has rediscovered its defensive balance will be a major challenge.

Atalanta vs Genoa Prediction and Tactical Overview

This Coppa Italia tie promises to be a tactical battle between two teams rejuvenated by new leadership. Atalanta will look to impose their high-tempo style, pressing aggressively and exploiting the wide areas, while Genoa are expected to rely on compact defending and quick transitions. The hosts’ superior squad depth and home record make them favorites, but the visitors’ recent form and confidence could make the contest tighter than expected.

Atalanta’s attacking duo of Scamacca and Lookman will be crucial in breaking down Genoa’s defense, while De Rossi’s men will depend heavily on Vitinha’s movement and Colombo’s finishing. The match could hinge on midfield control, where Atalanta’s technical quality might prove decisive. Given the history between these sides and the current form, the home team appears better equipped to advance to the quarter-finals.

Atalanta vs Genoa prediction by BetMines:
The most likely outcome is an Atalanta win (1) with a 54% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 27%, while a Genoa win (2) stands at 19%.