Atalanta welcome Hapoel Tel Aviv to the Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo on Thursday, August 20, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 18:30. This Europa Conference League play-off first leg brings together two teams carrying identical records across their last five matches: three victories, one draw and one defeat. Both have also averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded during that period. Atalanta are nevertheless presented as the stronger side for this fixture, with the supplied probabilities giving them a 54% chance of victory, compared with 24% for the draw and 22% for an away win. Hapoel Tel Aviv arrive with enough recent attacking evidence, however, to ensure that the hosts cannot treat the opening leg as a formality.

Atalanta Recent Form and Key Statistics

Atalanta enter the tie after recording a 1-0 victory over Athletic Club on August 14. That result added another success to a five-match sequence containing three wins, one draw and one loss. Their average of 1.8 goals per game across those fixtures underlines the attacking productivity described in their wider record, while an average of one goal conceded suggests they have generally balanced their scoring output with reasonable defensive control.

The hosts have found the net in 20 of their last 23 matches in all competitions. Only Bologna, Genoa and Juventus prevented them from scoring during that run, making an Atalanta goal one of the central expectations surrounding this Europa Conference League preview. Playing at home further strengthens their position in a contest where they begin with a clear statistical advantage in the match-result probabilities.

There is still a defensive question for Atalanta to answer. They have conceded in nine of their previous 13 games, a sequence that gives Hapoel Tel Aviv some encouragement despite the gap suggested by the pre-match outlook. The first-half trends are also notable: at least one team has failed to score before the interval in each of Atalanta’s last 21 home matches and in 38 of their previous 40 fixtures overall. This does not necessarily point to a goalless first half, but it does show how frequently one side has been kept quiet during the opening period of their games.

Hapoel Tel Aviv Recent Form and Key Statistics

Hapoel Tel Aviv travel to Bergamo following a 2-1 win over Ironi Kiryat Shmona on August 16. Like Atalanta, the visitors have collected three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding 1.0 per game. Their Europa Conference League season record stands at two victories, one draw and one loss, with the same averages of 1.8 scored and 1.0 allowed.

The away side’s recent scoring consistency is the strongest argument in their favour. Hapoel Tel Aviv have scored in 11 of their last 12 games, while their run away from home extends to six consecutive matches with a goal when friendlies are excluded. They also responded to a narrow 2-1 defeat against GKS Katowice by progressing after having won the earlier meeting 2-0. Those results indicate that the visitors have continued to create goals even when matches have not gone entirely in their favour.

Another important feature is their first-half performance in this competition. Hapoel Tel Aviv have been ahead at half-time in each of their last four Europa Conference League matches. That trend contrasts with Atalanta’s sequence in which at least one team has regularly failed to score before the break, creating an intriguing early-game dynamic. In addition, only two of Hapoel Tel Aviv’s last ten away matches have finished without a goal, based on the supplied under 0.5-goal statistic. Their recent numbers therefore give them a platform from which to challenge, even though they remain the outsiders in the result market.

Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Match Analysis

The statistical comparison places Atalanta in the stronger position. Their 20 scoring appearances across 23 matches provide a reliable attacking foundation, and the 1-0 victory over Athletic Club offers a positive result immediately before this European fixture. The 54% home-win probability is also comfortably higher than the 22% assigned to Hapoel Tel Aviv, while the 24% draw estimate leaves the hosts as the clearest single outcome.

At the same time, Hapoel Tel Aviv’s numbers make this a more competitive first leg than the broad favourite-underdog picture might imply. Scoring in 11 of 12 matches and in six straight competitive away fixtures shows sustained attacking output. Atalanta’s record of conceding in nine of 13 also means the visitors have a factual basis for believing they can contribute. Even so, the structured goal projections are finely balanced rather than strongly attack-oriented: both teams to score is assessed at 48% for Yes and 52% for No, while over 2.5 goals also receives 48% against 52% for under 2.5.

The two teams share identical recent form and scoring averages, but Atalanta combine home advantage with the stronger match-result probability and a long record of finding the net. Hapoel Tel Aviv’s scoring streak should demand concentration from the hosts, particularly given the visitors’ four consecutive half-time leads in the competition. Across the full contest, however, the available evidence supports Atalanta as the likelier winner of this Europa Conference League play-off opener.

Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv prediction from BetMines: Atalanta win (1) with 54% probability.