The 29th round of Serie A concludes with the highly anticipated big match at the Gewiss Stadium between Atalanta and Inter. The two teams, currently third and first in the standings, are separated by just three points. The home side, riding high after a stunning 4-0 victory against Juventus in Turin, come into the match full of confidence but also mindful of the two defeats they have already suffered against Inter this season. Simone Inzaghi’s team dominated the first encounter, securing a resounding 4-0 win at San Siro on August 30, when Atalanta were still rebuilding their squad during the transfer window. Inter’s second victory came more recently in the Italian Super Cup semifinal in January, where the Milanese side triumphed 2-0 thanks to a Dumfries brace. However, it’s worth noting that Gasperini fielded a rotated squad, prioritizing Serie A and the Champions League, where Atalanta’s journey ended in the Round of 16 playoffs against Club Brugge. Now, with no distractions from Coppa Italia or European commitments, Atalanta will give everything to secure a crucial victory and keep the Scudetto race open, as Napoli, led by Antonio Conte, also remains in contention and will face Venezia. Inter, on the other hand, have been remarkably consistent in decisive matches in Italy in recent years. A victory here could effectively eliminate Atalanta from the title race, turning the battle into a two-horse race between Inter and Napoli.

Atalanta’s Shape and Key Statistics

It’s no exaggeration to say that Atalanta might have preferred playing this match away from home rather than at the Gewiss Stadium. Gasperini’s side has struggled at home, with their last Serie A home win dating back to December 22 (a 2-1 victory against Empoli).

In their last five home matches across all competitions, Atalanta has failed to win, recording three draws and two losses, with the defeats coming in the Coppa Italia and Champions League. Furthermore, in their last three Serie A home games, they have only managed three points, drawing against Torino, Cagliari, and Venezia.

Another worrying stat is Atalanta’s lack of goals in their last two home matches, failing to score against Cagliari and Venezia. This is in stark contrast to their away form, where they have scored 14 goals in their last three away matches against Hellas Verona, Empoli, and Juventus.

Inter’s Shape and Key Statistics

Inter enter this match fresh off their qualification for the Champions League quarterfinals, having defeated Feyenoord 4-1 on aggregate. They will now face Bayern Munich in the next round. Despite not playing their best football lately, Inter have managed to grind out narrow victories.

Their most recent Serie A win came against bottom-placed Monza, where Inzaghi’s men had to come from two goals down to win 3-2, thanks to goals from Arnautovic, Calhanoglu, and an own goal by Kyriakopoulos.

Despite injury concerns, including key player Dimarco, Inter are currently on a six-match unbeaten run in all competitions (five wins and one draw). However, one worrying statistic ahead of their visit to Bergamo is their recent away form: they have lost two of their last five away matches, and their last Serie A away win dates back to January 26, when they won 4-0 against Lecce.

Atalanta vs Inter Prediction and Tactical Overview

Atalanta dismantled Juventus by allowing the Bianconeri to dominate possession while striking clinically on the counterattack. Gasperini is likely to adopt a similar approach against Inter, but past encounters suggest it won’t be easy.

In fact, Inter have proven to be Atalanta’s nightmare, winning each of the last seven head-to-head encounters. This, combined with Atalanta’s home struggles, suggests that the match could go either way, making the outcome highly uncertain.

Instead of betting on a winner, it may be wiser to focus on a different market: given that these two teams have the best attacking records in Serie A (both with 63 goals scored), there is a high chance that both teams will score. This also sets up an exciting clash between Thuram and Lookman, both tied in third place in the Serie A top scorers chart with 13 goals.

According to BetMines’ prediction algorithm, the match is expected to see both teams scoring. 

• The BetMines algorithm prediction for the Atalanta vs Inter match predicts that both teams will score at least one goal at 55%
• The BetMines algorithm prediction for the Atalanta vs Inter match predicts that at least one of the two teams will not score at 45%

Atalanta vs Inter Predicted Lineups

ATALANTA (3-4-2-1): Carnesecchi; Djimsiti, Hien, Kolasinac; Bellanova, De Roon, Ederson, Zappacosta; De Ketelaere, Lookman; Retegui. Coach: Gasperini

INTER (3-5-2): Sommer; Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Carlos Augusto; Lautaro, Thuram. Coach: Inzaghi