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Prediction published on Oct 17, 2025 11:29 AM by Dario in Italy - Serie A | Modified on Oct 17, 2025 11:29 AM
At the New Balance Arena in Bergamo, on Sunday, October 19, Ivan Juric’s Atalanta will host Maurizio Sarri’s Lazio in one of the most entertaining fixtures of Serie A Matchday 7. Both teams are chasing crucial points to climb up the league table — after the first six rounds, Atalanta sit sixth and Lazio thirteenth, separated by just three points. The hosts arrive in better form, having recently found more consistency, while the visitors are still struggling to deliver convincing performances, partly due to several injuries. One thing both sides have in common, however, is their excellent attacking output — and their occasional defensive lapses. With so much at stake at the New Balance Arena, Atalanta are eager to return to winning ways to push into the top spots, while Lazio desperately need a victory to leave behind their slow start and close the gap to the European positions.
Atalanta are currently enjoying a good run of form. After a somewhat inconsistent start to the season, they come into this match unbeaten in their last four games across Serie A and the UEFA Champions League. In their most recent league fixture, played on October 4, they drew 1-1 at home against Como — Samardzic opened the scoring before Perrone equalized.
Their record in the last five matches in all competitions is positive: 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeat, averaging 1.4 goals scored and conceded per game. Among their best recent results stands out the impressive 2-1 comeback win against Club Brugge on September 30 in the Champions League.
After six Serie A rounds, Atalanta have collected 10 points from 2 wins and 4 draws, remaining unbeaten so far. Offensively, they’ve averaged nearly 2 goals per game (1.83), while conceding less than one (0.83).
Their attacking numbers are likely to improve further, as Juric is set to recover key players like Scamacca and De Ketelaere, both expected to return to the squad for this clash. Defensively, Scalvini’s comeback is another boost, though Kolasinac remains sidelined.
After the heavy defeat in the Rome Derby against Roma on September 21, Lazio have responded with two positive results — a 0-3 away win at Genoa followed by a 3-3 home draw against Torino before the international break.
Looking at their last five matches, the Biancocelesti have struggled for consistency: 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with an average of 2 goals scored and 1 conceded per match. These numbers depict a team that’s dangerous in attack but still too fragile defensively.
In Serie A, after six rounds, Sarri’s men have earned just 7 points (2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 defeats), averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded.
With 10 goals scored so far, Lazio are among the top-scoring teams in the league at this stage. However, ahead of the trip to Bergamo, Sarri will have to cope without Castellanos and likely Zaccagni — two-thirds of his usual attacking trio.
The Atalanta vs Lazio clash promises to be one of the most entertaining and goal-filled matches of Serie A Matchday 7. Both sides play proactive, attacking football, which often leads to open games and defensive risks.
BetMines expects a high-scoring encounter, predicting over 2.5 total goals with a 57% probability, compared to 43% for the under 2.5 goals. This outlook is based on both teams’ strong attacking potential, despite their injury concerns.
For the “both teams to score” market, the algorithm estimates a 59% probability that both sides will find the net. Atalanta’s high defensive line could be exploited by Lazio’s quick attackers — especially Cancellieri, who recently scored a brace against Torino.
As for the final result, BetMines slightly favors the home side, giving Atalanta a 48% chance of victory, while Lazio sit at 27%. Juric’s men have the advantage of playing in front of their fans — they’ve lost only once in their last eight Serie A home games — and appear to be in better recent form than Sarri’s team.
ATALANTA (3-4-2-1): Carnesecchi; Djimsiti, Hien, Ahanor; Zappacosta, Ederson, De Roon, Bernasconi; Samardzic, Sulemana; Krstovic. Coach: Juric
LAZIO (4-3-3): Provedel; Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Tavares; Guendouzi, Cataldi, Basic; Cancellieri, Dia, Pedro. Coach: Sarri
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Atalanta
Lazio
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
0
10
1.5
4
6
2
8
2.5
5
5
3
7
3.5
9
1
7
3
4.5
9
1
8
2