Among the most intriguing matches of Serie A Matchday 31 is the clash at the Gewiss Stadium between Atalanta and Lazio, two teams still battling for a place in next season’s European competitions. Gasperini’s side, currently third in the table, comes into this fixture after two consecutive defeats in the league against Inter and Fiorentina. These back-to-back losses have allowed both Juventus and Bologna to close the gap dangerously, making this home game a must-win for the Bergamo side. A victory over Lazio, who sit seventh but just four points off the Champions League zone, would allow Atalanta to put pressure on second-placed Napoli, who have a tough Monday night fixture away to Bologna. Lazio are currently in a downward phase, not having won since Matchday 27. The dip in form has been heavily influenced by the recent absence of Taty Castellanos, the team’s main attacking reference point, and the increasing burden of midweek European commitments. Baroni’s men are about to enter a decisive stretch of the season, with a tight schedule that includes this match in Bergamo, a double Europa League quarter-final clash with Norwegian side Bodo/Glimt, and the much-anticipated Rome derby in the next Serie A round. The former Lecce and Verona coach will need to rotate wisely and manage his squad carefully to avoid injuries and drops in focus that could undermine the team’s progress so far.

Atalanta's recent form and key statistics

Atalanta arrive at this match having lost their last two Serie A games without scoring a single goal and conceding three. Over their past five matches, they’ve registered two wins, two losses, and one draw, scoring nine goals and conceding three.

Despite being the second-highest scoring team in Serie A with 63 goals — an average of 2.1 per match — Atalanta continue to struggle at home. They have not celebrated a league win at the Gewiss Stadium since December 22, and in the six home games since then, they’ve recorded four draws and two losses.

Lazio's recent form and key statistics

Lazio, meanwhile, dropped out of the top six after a 1-1 draw against Torino in the previous round, which allowed Roma to leapfrog them in the standings. Their last Serie A win came on March 2 against AC Milan, followed by two draws and one defeat.

Baroni’s team have picked up 25 of their 52 total points away from home, with 22 goals scored and 21 conceded in 15 away matches. In all competitions, Lazio have lost two of their last five away fixtures, while winning two and drawing one.

Atalanta vs Lazio prediction and tactical overview

In the reverse fixture, played on December 28, Lazio and Atalanta drew 1-1. Dele-Bashiru opened the scoring for the Biancocelesti before Brescianini equalized for the Nerazzurri just two minutes from full time. In their last ten meetings, Atalanta have won four times, Lazio three, and three matches have ended in a draw. Interestingly, in seven of those ten encounters, both teams managed to find the back of the net.

Looking at the team news, Gasperini will have Ederson back from suspension, an important boost in midfield. Lazio, on the other hand, will be without the suspended Guendouzi, but Baroni is expected to start Nuno Tavares and have Castellanos available on the bench. There are doubts over the fitness of Isaksen, who is recovering from an ankle issue.

Given that this match features the second and third best attacks in Serie A, the BetMines algorithm prediction for Atalanta vs Lazio predicts a match with more than 2.5 goals. 

• The BetMines prediction for the Atalanta vs Lazio match predicts Over 2.5 goals at 52%.
• The BetMines prediction for the Atalanta vs Lazio match predicts Under 2.5 goals at 48%.

Predicted lineups Atalanta vs Lazio

Atalanta (3-4-2-1): Carnesecchi; Djimsiti, Hien, Kolasinac; Bellanova, De Roon, Ederson, Zappacosta; Pasalic, Lookman; Retegui. Manager: Gasperini

Lazio (4-3-3): Provedel; Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Tavares; Dele-Bashiru, Rovella, Vecino; Isaksen, Dia, Zaccagni. Manager: Baroni