Atalanta vs Real Madrid Prediction: Preview and Analysis - UEFA Champions League

Top Leagues

Atalanta

2 - 3

FT

Real Madrid

Gewiss Stadium
Szymon Marciniak
broken clouds 5.6 °C

Dec 9, 2024

The match at the Gewiss Stadium will be one of the most attention-grabbing of the next round of the Champions League. The game will be partly seen as a re-edition of the European Super Cup from August, won by Real Madrid. However, what truly matters is the current state of affairs, where Atalanta is in much better form in the Champions League compared to the Blancos, who, on the other hand, occupy an unexpectedly delicate position that, if not improved, will force them into a must-win situation in upcoming rounds to avoid elimination.

 

Form and Key Stats of Atalanta

A team that is the current Europa League champion doesn’t need to prove anything in Europe, yet Atalanta's numbers in the Champions League so far are impressive: undefeated with 3 wins and 2 draws, and with their usual productive and dazzling attack, scoring an average of 2.2 goals per match.

Considering their domestic league as well, where the Nerazzurri are currently in first place alone, their winning streak after the 2-1 victory over Milan has reached 9 matches. This is even more significant because most of these wins have seen Atalanta outshoot and out-create chances compared to their opponents.

Atalanta has not lost in 7 of their last 8 Champions League matches.

 

Form and Key Stats of Real Madrid

Thinking about Real Madrid means thinking about the Champions League, of which they are also the current holders. Therefore, it’s surprising that the Galacticos have already lost 3 matches in the competition so far. What doesn’t surprise, however, is their current position in the European standings, where they are in 24th place, the last spot that would currently secure a playoff berth.

While the situation in the Cup is delicate, their league form quickly recovered after the 0-4 loss to Barcelona at the end of October, especially after a convincing 0-3 victory over Girona. In that match, Bellingham scored for the fifth consecutive game in La Liga, and Kylian Mbappé netted his 9th goal in the competition. The loss to Atlético in Bilbao had raised some concerns, but Ancelotti's men responded well and are now back in contention for the title.

In this Champions League season, Real Madrid has won 2 matches, lost 3, and has never drawn. Real Madrid scored an average of 1.8 goals per match and conceded 1.8.

 

Match Prediction and Tactical Overview

Real Madrid’s need for points, and possibly a win (since a draw, although valuable, wouldn’t provide much security regarding qualification), should lead to a game with more open spaces and numerous scoring opportunities for both teams.

Atalanta, after all, always wins and often does so by scoring many goals. For Real Madrid, goals scored, especially with Bellingham back in form (though doubtful for the Bergamo match) and the ever-present Mbappé, are not an issue. Thus, we can expect both Atalanta and Real Madrid to find the net.

Prediction for the Atalanta vs Real Madrid match: Both teams to score at least one goal.

According to BetMines' algorithm, the probability of both teams scoring at least one goal in the Atalanta vs Real Madrid Champions League match on 12/10/24 are as follows:

  • BetMines predicts a 56% chance that both teams will score at least one goal in Atalanta vs Real Madrid
  • BetMines predicts a 44% chance that at least one team will not score any goals in Atalanta vs Real Madrid

 

Probable Line-ups for Atalanta vs Real Madrid:

Atalanta (3-4-1-2): Carnesecchi; Kossounou, Hien, Kolasinac, Bellanova, De Roon, Ederson, Ruggeri; De Ketelaere, Lookman, Retegui. Coach: Gasperini.

Real Madrid (4-3-2-1): Courtois; Lucas Vasquez, Raul Asencio, Rudiger, Valverde; Ceballos, Modric, Tchouameni, Mbappé, Brahim Diaz, Arda Guler. Coach: Ancelotti.

Atalanta vs Real Madrid - Predictions

Other
  • Both teams to score
  • Total Corners

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Atalanta vs Real Madrid: Pre-match Stats Comparison

This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams

Atalanta

Real Madrid

Under

Over

Under

Over

0.5

10%

1

90%

9

0%

0

100%

10

1.5

20%

2

80%

8

10%

1

90%

9

2.5

50%

5

50%

5

10%

1

90%

9

3.5

60%

6

40%

4

40%

4

60%

6

4.5

70%

7

30%

3

50%

5

50%

5

BetMines

Standings of Atalanta and Real Madrid in Champions League

Other
  • Over/Under 2nd Half
  • Over/Under Corner
  • Both Teams to score
  • BTTS - Half Time
  • BTTS - 2nd Half
  • Three way results

League Stage - Ranking

Team

MP

W

D

L

G

Pts

9

Atalanta

8

4

3

1

20:6

15

11

Real Madrid

8

5

0

3

20:12

15

8th Finals
Play-off

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