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Prediction published on Oct 2, 2025 6:03 PM by Dario in Spain - La Liga | Modified on Oct 2, 2025 6:06 PM
LaLiga returns to San Mamés with a crucial clash between Athletic Club and Mallorca. The Basque side are desperate to end a worrying slump in form, while the visitors arrive in Bilbao still searching for consistency away from home. Both teams are under pressure, but for different reasons: Athletic need to stop their freefall after a series of defeats, while Mallorca must find a way to escape the relegation zone. With both sides struggling in front of goal, this encounter promises to be a tense and tactical battle rather than a high-scoring affair.
Athletic Club started the season brightly with three wins in their opening four LaLiga matches, including victories over Sevilla (3-2), Rayo Vallecano (1-0), and Real Betis (1-2). However, since then, their form has collapsed. The Basques have failed to win any of their last five matches in all competitions, recording just one draw and four defeats. Their most recent outing was a heavy 4-1 loss to Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League, underlining their defensive fragility.
In LaLiga, Athletic currently sit in 10th place with a record of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 3 defeats. They average just 1.0 goals scored per game while conceding 1.1. Their attack has been blunt, scoring only twice in their last five matches, while their defense has leaked an average of 2.0 goals per game in that same period. The absence of Nico Williams has been particularly damaging, as the winger’s pace and creativity have been sorely missed. Sancet and Berenguer are also doubts, while Eguiluz and Prados remain sidelined.
Despite these setbacks, San Mamés remains a difficult ground for visitors, and Athletic will look to their home support to inspire a turnaround. Coach Ernesto Valverde is expected to field a lineup featuring Unai Simón in goal, with Vivian and Laporte anchoring the defense. In attack, Iñaki Williams and Guruzeta should lead the line, with Robert Navarro ready to step in if Nico Williams is not fit to start.
Mallorca enter this fixture sitting in 19th place with just 5 points from their opening seven matches. Their season began with a heavy 0-3 defeat to Barcelona, followed by a 1-1 draw against Celta Vigo. They have since struggled on the road, losing all three of their away games, including narrow defeats at Real Madrid (2-1), Espanyol (3-2), and Real Sociedad (1-0). Their only victory so far came at home against Deportivo Alavés (1-0), thanks to a goal from Asano, who is now unavailable due to injury.
Overall, Mallorca have managed just 1 win, 2 draws, and 4 defeats in LaLiga this season, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Their struggles away from home are particularly concerning, as they have yet to pick up a single point on their travels. Coach Jagoba Arrasate will also be without Kumbulla and Omar Mascarell, further limiting his options. The likely starting XI includes Leo Román in goal, with Maffeo, Valjent, Raíllo, and Mojica in defense. In midfield, Sergi Darder and Samu Costa will provide balance, while Muriqi remains the key figure in attack, supported by Pablo Torre and Mateo Joseph.
One notable trend is Mallorca’s low-scoring matches: 19 of their last 20 LaLiga games have finished under 3.5 goals. This reflects their defensive approach but also their lack of cutting edge in attack, especially away from home.
Historically, this fixture has been tight. In their last five head-to-head meetings, Athletic are unbeaten with 1 win and 4 draws, averaging 1.2 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded per game. Their most recent clash ended 1-1 in March 2025 Athletic’s main challenge will be breaking down Mallorca’s compact defense, especially if Nico Williams is unavailable. Meanwhile, Mallorca’s poor away form suggests they will struggle to create chances at San Mamés. The Basques are under pressure, but this match represents an ideal opportunity to bounce back against a side that has yet to collect a single point on the road this season. Expect a cautious first half, as 18 of Athletic’s last 20 LaLiga matches have produced under 1.5 goals before half-time. The second half, however, could open up, as Athletic have seen over 0.5 goals scored after the break in each of their last 11 league games. Ultimately, the home side’s greater quality and the support of their fans should give them the edge. ATHLETIC CLUB (4-3-3): Unai Simón; Areso, Vivian, Laporte, Yuri Berchiche; Ruiz de Galarreta, Unai Gómez, Jauregizar; Iñaki Williams, Guruzeta, Nico Williams (or Robert Navarro). Coach: Ernesto Valverde MALLORCA (4-3-3): Leo Román; Maffeo, Valjent, Raíllo, Mojica; Morlanes, Sergi Darder, Samu Costa; Mateo Joseph, Muriqi, Pablo Torre. Coach: Jagoba Arrasate Athletic Club vs Mallorca prediction by BetMines:Probable Lineups Athletic Club vs Mallorca
Based on recent form, head-to-head history, and statistical probabilities, the prediction leans towards a home win (1) with a 60% probability. The draw is given a 24% chance, while an away win for Mallorca is rated at just 15%.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Athletic Club
Mallorca
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
2
8
1
9
2.5
5
5
4
6
3.5
8
2
9
1
4.5
8
2
10
0