The Copa del Rey semifinals bring one of Spain’s most passionate rivalries back to life as Athletic Club host Real Sociedad at San Mamés. This first leg promises intensity, history, and emotion, with both Basque sides determined to take a crucial step toward the final. The home crowd will play a major role in pushing the rojiblancos, while the visitors arrive in excellent form and full of confidence after a strong run in the competition. With the second leg still to come at the Reale Arena, neither side can afford to slip up in this opening chapter of the tie.

Athletic Club’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Athletic Club come into this semifinal after eliminating Valencia and Levante, the latter defeated 4-2 on February 8, 2026. Their recent form has been mixed, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats in their last five matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. In the Copa del Rey campaign, they remain unbeaten (1 win, 2 draws), showing a solid balance between attack and defense with 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game.

San Mamés continues to be a fortress where the rojiblancos rely heavily on the energy of their supporters. Over 1.5 goals have been scored in each of their last 11 matches, and there has been at least one goal before half time in all of them. However, they have also experienced tight contests, with Under 0.5 goals in 2 of their last 10 Copa del Rey fixtures, suggesting that while they can score, they sometimes struggle to dominate early.

Historically, Athletic have had a slight edge in this derby, winning two of the last five meetings, drawing two, and losing one. Their last head-to-head encounter ended 1-1 on February 1, 2026, a result that reflects the balance between these two sides. The rojiblancos will once again look to key figures in attack to make the difference, especially in front of their home crowd, where they have often found an extra gear in decisive moments.

Real Sociedad’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Real Sociedad arrive at San Mamés in outstanding form. They defeated Elche 3-1 on February 7, 2026, and remain unbeaten in their last five matches, with 4 wins and 1 draw. Their attacking numbers are impressive: 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match over that stretch. In the Copa del Rey, they boast an even stronger record — 4 wins, 1 draw, and no defeats — averaging 2.4 goals per game while conceding just one on average.

Despite their attacking prowess, the Txuri-Urdinak have shown some defensive vulnerability, having conceded at least one goal in each of their last 12 matches. Still, their consistency away from home is remarkable: they have avoided defeat in 24 of their last 25 away games in the Copa del Rey and have not trailed at half time in that same span. They have also scored in 19 of their last 20 matches, underlining their offensive reliability.

Recent trends point to open, entertaining games involving Real Sociedad. Over 1.5 total goals have been scored in each of their last 11 matches, and both teams have found the net in all of them. This attacking mindset could make the difference in a tie where away goals and momentum are crucial. Their ability to perform under pressure on the road could be a decisive factor in this first leg.

Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad Tactical Overview

This Basque derby is expected to be a high-intensity and tightly contested battle. Athletic Club will rely on their physicality, pressing, and home advantage, while Real Sociedad will look to control possession and exploit spaces on the counterattack. Both teams have been productive in front of goal this season, but their defensive records suggest that neither side will have an easy night.

The balance between attack and defense will be key. Athletic’s recent matches have produced goals at both ends, while Real Sociedad’s tendency to concede despite winning could open the door for another close, goal-filled encounter. The average of 2.6 goals in their last ten head-to-head meetings supports the expectation of an open game, though the stakes of a semifinal might lead to more cautious moments, especially in the first half.

Given the form of both sides, the first leg could hinge on small details — a set piece, a defensive lapse, or a moment of brilliance from one of the attacking stars. The home side’s energy at San Mamés will be crucial, but Real Sociedad’s unbeaten away record in the competition cannot be ignored. Everything points to a thrilling ninety minutes of football in Bilbao.

BetMines Prediction: Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad

Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad prediction from BetMines: Under 2.5 goals with 55% probability. The data suggests a balanced encounter where both teams may cancel each other out for long stretches. While goals are likely, the defensive discipline expected in a semifinal could keep the total under three. Expect a tight, tactical battle that leaves the tie wide open ahead of the return leg at the Reale Arena.