The upcoming clash between Athletico Paranaense and Santos promises to be one of the most intriguing fixtures of the early rounds of the 2026 Brasileirão Série A. Scheduled for Thursday, February 12, at the Arena da Baixada, this encounter brings together two sides with contrasting starts to the season. The hosts, recently promoted back to the top flight, began their campaign with a valuable away win, while the visitors are still searching for their first victory after a difficult opening.

Athletico Paranaense’s Recent Form and Key Stats

After a year competing in Série B, Athletico Paranaense returned to the elite division with renewed confidence. Their debut could not have gone better, as they defeated Internacional 1-0 away from home on January 28. That result extended their impressive run of form — the team has now recorded five consecutive wins across all competitions, scoring an average of 1.4 goals per match and conceding just 0.2.

At home, the Furacão have been particularly solid. In their last 19 matches at the Arena da Baixada, Under 3.5 goals have been recorded every time, reflecting a disciplined defensive structure and a preference for controlled, low-scoring games. Moreover, they have led at half time in their last three home fixtures, and in 31 of their last 33 matches, at least one team failed to score before the break. These numbers highlight a pattern of cautious first halves and strong finishes.

In the current Série A campaign, Athletico have one win from one match, averaging one goal scored and none conceded. Their consistency and home advantage make them a formidable opponent, especially against a Santos side still finding its rhythm. The team’s recent history against the Peixe also inspires confidence — in the last meeting between the two, Athletico triumphed 3-0 at home in December 2023.

Santos’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Santos enter this fixture under pressure after a slow start to the 2026 season. They have collected just one point from their first two Série A matches, drawing once and losing once. Their campaign began with a 4-2 defeat away to Chapecoense, followed by a 1-1 draw in the São Paulo derby against São Paulo. These results leave them in 17th place, just inside the relegation zone.

In their last five matches across all competitions, Santos have registered one win, two draws, and two defeats, scoring an average of 1.0 goal per game while conceding 1.6. Their defensive fragility has been a recurring issue, particularly away from home. In fact, Over 1.5 goals have been scored in each of their last 14 away matches in Série A, and they have trailed at half time in eight of their last twelve away fixtures. These trends suggest that the Peixe often struggle to contain opponents early on, especially when playing outside Vila Belmiro.

Despite these challenges, Santos showed some attacking promise in their recent 2-1 win over Noroeste in the state competition, which could boost morale ahead of this trip to Curitiba. However, their defensive record remains a concern, and facing a confident Athletico side on home soil will be a stern test.

Head-to-Head and Tactical Overview

The historical record between these two clubs is balanced but slightly favors Santos. Out of 63 previous meetings, the Peixe have won 29 times, while Athletico have 19 victories and 15 draws. However, recent encounters have been more even, with one win each and a draw in the last three matches. The most recent clash, a 3-0 home win for Athletico in 2023, demonstrated the Paranaense side’s growing dominance at the Arena da Baixada.

Given the current form and statistical trends, this match is likely to feature a cautious start, with Under 1.5 goals in the first half being a common pattern for both teams. Athletico’s defensive organization and home advantage could once again prove decisive, while Santos will rely on their attacking talent to break through a compact back line. The visitors’ tendency to concede early could tilt the balance in favor of the hosts.

• Ranking: Athletico PR 10th, Santos 17th


• Last head-to-head: Athletico PR 3-0 Santos (2023-12-03)


• Last 5 matches: Athletico PR – 5W, 0D, 0L; Santos – 1W, 2D, 2L


• Average goals: Athletico PR 1.4 scored / 0.2 conceded; Santos 1.0 scored / 1.6 conceded


• Under 3.5 goals in the last 13 Athletico PR matches


• Over 1.5 goals in the last 14 away matches of Santos in Série A

Probable Lineups Athletico PR vs Santos

ATHLETICO PR: Santos; Carlos Terán, Juan Felipe Aguirre, Arthur Dias; Gastón Benavídez, Juan Portilla, Bruno Zapelli, Lucas Esquivel (Léo Derik); Steven Mendoza, Felipe Chiqueti (Julimar), Kevin Viveros.
SANTOS: Gabriel Brazão; Igor Vinícius, Zé Ivaldo, Luan Peres, Escobar; João Schmidt, Gabriel Bontempo, Miguelito; Barreal, Gabigol, Rony.

Athletico PR vs Santos Prediction and Final Analysis

Both teams are in search of stability after challenging campaigns in 2025. Athletico’s return to the top flight has started positively, while Santos are still struggling to find consistency. The hosts’ strong defensive record and home advantage make them favorites to secure another victory. Santos, on the other hand, will need to improve defensively if they are to take anything from this match.

Considering the statistical trends — particularly Athletico’s low-scoring home games and Santos’s vulnerability away — this fixture could follow a familiar pattern of tight margins and few goals. However, the Furacão’s momentum and confidence suggest they are well placed to claim all three points.

Athletico PR vs Santos prediction by BetMines:
Home Win (1) with 49% probability.