After a slow start to the season, Atlético Madrid have found their rhythm and are now unbeaten in five consecutive official matches. Under Diego Simeone, the team has rediscovered its trademark intensity, combining defensive solidity with renewed attacking flair. Their recent emphatic victories — a 5-2 triumph over Real Madrid in La Liga and a 5-1 demolition of Eintracht Frankfurt in the Champions League — have boosted morale and restored confidence ahead of this weekend’s clash against Osasuna at the Metropolitano.

The visitors, meanwhile, have shown a stark contrast between their home and away performances. While strong in Pamplona, Osasuna have struggled badly on the road, failing to collect a single point in four away matches. This fixture, therefore, appears to heavily favor the hosts, who are climbing steadily up the table and looking to maintain their unbeaten home record.

Atlético Madrid’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Atlético Madrid currently sit fifth in La Liga, with a record of three wins, four draws, and one defeat. Their attacking numbers are impressive, averaging 1.9 goals scored per game while conceding 1.3. In their last five matches across all competitions, they have recorded three wins and two draws, scoring an average of 3.0 goals per match. The team’s offensive resurgence has been led by Antoine Griezmann and Julián Álvarez, both in fine form.

At home, Atlético have been particularly strong. They have scored in each of their last 13 home matches in La Liga and have not lost at half-time in 24 of their last 25 league games. The Metropolitano remains a fortress, where Simeone’s men often dominate early — winning at half-time in six of their last ten home fixtures. Their recent 1-1 draw away to Celta de Vigo was a minor setback, but overall, the team’s trajectory is clearly upward.

For this match, Lenglet will be unavailable due to suspension, while Johny Cardoso remains doubtful with physical issues. Simeone is expected to field a strong starting XI featuring Oblak; Marcos Llorente, Le Normand, Hancko, Galán; Giuliano, Koke, Barrios, Baena; Griezmann and Julián Álvarez. This lineup combines experience, creativity, and attacking depth — a formula that has served them well in recent weeks.

Osasuna’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Osasuna enter this fixture in 12th place, with a mixed record of three wins, one draw, and four defeats. Their last outing was a 2-1 home victory over Getafe, a result that highlighted their strength at El Sadar. However, their away form remains a major concern: four matches, four losses, with just one goal scored and six conceded. The team’s inability to find the net on the road has been their biggest weakness so far.

Statistically, Osasuna’s matches tend to be low-scoring. Under 3.5 goals have been recorded in each of their last 12 La Liga games, and they average just 0.9 goals scored per match this season. Despite their struggles away from home, they remain organized defensively and difficult to break down when compact. Coach Alessandro Lisci is expected to stick with his preferred 3-5-2 formation, featuring Herrera; Boyomo, Catena, Juan Cruz; Rosier, Moncayola, Torró, Moi Gómez, Bretones; Budimir and Víctor Muñoz. The only doubt is Aimar Oroz, who faces a late fitness test.

Osasuna’s main challenge will be to contain Atlético’s attacking momentum and to find a way to threaten on the counter. Their recent head-to-head record offers little encouragement, as they lost 2-0 in the last meeting on May 15, 2025. Overall, Atlético have won three of the last five encounters, scoring an average of 1.4 goals per game and conceding 1.2.

Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna Prediction and Tactical Overview

This matchup appears to be one of the most one-sided fixtures of the weekend. Atlético Madrid’s current form, combined with their home advantage and Osasuna’s poor away record, makes the hosts clear favorites. Simeone’s side have been scoring freely, while Osasuna have struggled to find the net on their travels. The tactical setup suggests that Atlético will dominate possession and territory, forcing Osasuna to defend deep and rely on sporadic counterattacks.

Given Atlético’s consistency at home and their attacking efficiency, it is difficult to see Osasuna causing an upset. The hosts’ ability to score early and control the tempo should prove decisive. Expect Atlético to press high, exploit the flanks through Llorente and Galán, and create numerous chances for Griezmann and Álvarez. Osasuna’s best hope lies in maintaining defensive discipline and capitalizing on set pieces, but even that may not be enough against a side in such strong form.

Probable Lineups Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna
ATLÉTICO MADRID (4-4-2): Oblak; Marcos Llorente, Le Normand, Hancko, Galán; Giuliano, Koke, Barrios, Baena; Griezmann, Julián Álvarez. Coach: Diego Simeone.
OSASUNA (3-5-2): Herrera; Boyomo, Catena, Juan Cruz; Rosier, Moncayola, Torró, Moi Gómez, Bretones; Budimir, Víctor Muñoz. Coach: Alessandro Lisci.

Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna prediction by BetMines:
The most likely outcome is a Home Win (1) with a 69% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 21%, while an Away Win (2) has a 10% chance.