On Wednesday, September 24, at the Metropolitano Stadium, the Madrid derby between Atletico Madrid and Rayo Vallecano takes place, valid for Matchday 6 of LaLiga 2025/26. A clash that promises to be crucial especially for the Colchoneros, who need to react after a disappointing start to the season. Diego Simeone’s side has collected just 6 points in the first five rounds and currently sits 12th, nine points behind league leaders Real Madrid. A heavy gap that could soon become unbridgeable: next weekend Atletico will face none other than the Blancos in the Madrid derby. A slip-up against Rayo followed by a defeat against Real Madrid could already compromise Atletico’s title hopes by the end of September. Rayo Vallecano, currently 14th, sits just one point behind the Colchoneros and dreams of overtaking them. With a win at the Metropolitano, the Franjirrojos could move close to the European spots, confirming the positive signs from last season’s 8th-place finish. On paper, Atletico remains the favorite thanks to home advantage and a favorable head-to-head record, but Rayo will try everything to overturn the predictions. One thing is certain: the derby is expected to be a battle, as both sides desperately need a win to climb the table and stay in the European race.

Atletico Madrid's recent form and key stats

Atletico Madrid’s struggles continue. After a 3-2 defeat at Anfield in their Champions League opener, they only managed a 1-1 draw away at Mallorca in Matchday 5 of LaLiga.

The Colchoneros wasted a penalty with Alvarez in the first half and, after going down to ten men in the 72nd minute due to Sorloth’s red card, still took the lead in the 79th through Gallagher. However, Vedat Muriqi equalized six minutes later, denying Atletico the victory.

Simeone’s side currently has 6 points (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss), averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1 conceded per game. These numbers highlight Atletico’s issues: not sharp enough in attack despite plenty of quality, and less solid than usual at the back.

One encouraging sign ahead of the derby: Atletico are unbeaten in their last six home matches at the Metropolitano, with five wins and one draw. This season, they’ve beaten Villarreal and drawn with Elche at home, confirming that playing in Madrid remains a tough challenge for any opponent.

Rayo Vallecano's recent form and key stats

Rayo Vallecano are also going through a delicate moment, winless in their last three LaLiga games (two draws and one defeat). In their last outing, the Franjirrojos drew 1-1 at home against Celta Vigo, with Jorge de Frutos scoring to cancel out Borja Iglesias’ opener.

Inigo Perez’s side comes into the derby with 5 points (1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats), showing a balanced trend: averaging 1 goal scored and 1.2 conceded per game. A profile that matches their identity – usually able to score but also prone to leaving gaps in defense.

Their away form is not great: after two initial wins away at Girona (3-1) and against Neman in the Conference League qualifiers (1-0), Rayo lost their last two LaLiga trips, against Athletic Bilbao and Osasuna.

Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano prediction and tactical overview

Predictions are clearly leaning in Atletico Madrid’s favor, thanks to home advantage and a dominant historical record. The Colchoneros have won eleven of their last twelve home matches against Rayo Vallecano, with the Franjirrojos’ last away victory dating back to 1999.

Simeone’s men also desperately need a win to avoid losing more ground and to close the gap with the top teams. They will be aiming to face Real Madrid next weekend with momentum from a derby victory over Rayo.

As for the lineups, Atletico will be without suspended Sorloth. Simeone still has plenty of options up front with Griezmann, Alvarez, and Raspadori fighting for two starting spots. For the visitors, veteran defender Luiz Felipe remains sidelined due to injury, after missing the last league match as well.

Considering Atletico’s need for points, their strong home record, and the head-to-head history, BetMines’ prediction points to a clear home win.

• Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano prediction by BetMines: Atletico Madrid win (1) – 60% probability
  
  
• Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano prediction by BetMines: Draw (X) – 24% probability
  
  
• Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano prediction by BetMines: Rayo Vallecano win (2) – 17% probability

Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano predicted lineups

ATLETICO MADRID (4-4-2): Oblak; Llorente, Le Normand, Lenglet, Hancko; Simeone, Koke, Barrios, Gallagher; Raspadori, Alvarez. Coach: Diego Simeone

RAYO VALLECANO (4-2-3-1): Batalla; Ratiu, Ciss, Lejeune, Espino; Valentin, Diaz; De Frutos, Palazon, Garcia; Camello. Coach: Inigo Perez