After their weekend commitments in La Liga, with different outcomes, Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid must quickly recover both physically and mentally to battle it out in the second leg of the Champions League Round of 16. At the Civitas Metropolitano Stadium, Diego Simeone’s team must win by at least two goals to overturn the 2-1 first-leg defeat at the Santiago Bernabeu last Tuesday. The first leg was an intense back-and-forth match, with Ancelotti’s team taking the lead after just three minutes thanks to a brilliant goal from Rodrygo. Atletico Madrid managed to equalize at the end of the first half with a stunning strike from Julian Alvarez. However, it was Brahim Diaz who sealed the victory for Real Madrid, scoring his second goal in this season’s Champions League, giving the Los Blancos the advantage of two results out of three to qualify. As always, this Madrid derby is expected to be highly competitive and full of emotions, with both teams giving their all to secure a place in the quarter-finals, where they will likely face Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal.

Atletico Madrid's Shape & Key Statistics

Atletico Madrid heads into this Champions League derby after a surprising 2-1 defeat to Getafe, a loss that cost them valuable points in the La Liga title race. In their last five matches across all competitions, Los Colchoneros have recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses, averaging two goals scored per game and conceding 1.6.

Playing at the Civitas Metropolitano could be an advantage, as Atletico Madrid remains unbeaten in their last 12 home matches across all competitions. In the Champions League, they have lost just one of their last 14 home games. Their key players in the tournament so far have been Julian Alvarez (7 goals) and Antoine Griezmann (6 goals).

Real Madrid's Shape & Key Statistics

Thanks to a 2-1 victory over Rayo Vallecano, with goals from Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior, Real Madrid has climbed to the top of the La Liga standings, tied with Barcelona, who have one game in hand.

Ancelotti’s men are in great form, having lost just one of their last 10 matches across all competitions. In the Champions League, after a mixed start, they have won their last six consecutive matches, including the playoff round against Manchester City (a 2-3 win in Manchester and a 3-1 victory in Madrid).

The team’s top scorers in the tournament are Mbappe and Vinicius Junior, both with 7 goals.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction & Tactical Analysis

This will be the fourth Madrid derby of the season, with one win for Real Madrid and two 1-1 draws. Looking at their last five head-to-head meetings, four ended in a draw, and in each case, both teams scored.

A crucial fact to consider is that neither Atletico Madrid nor Real Madrid has drawn a match in this season’s Champions League. Given the stakes, it is unlikely that this game will end in a draw, as it would result in Atletico Madrid’s elimination.

Considering the attacking firepower on both sides and their recent match history, BetMines’ prediction for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid suggests that both teams will score at least one goal.

• The BetMines algorithm prediction for the Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid match predicts that both teams will score at least one goal at 56%
• The BetMines algorithm prediction for the Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid match predicts that at least one of the two teams will not score at 44%

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Probable Lineups

ATLETICO MADRID (4-4-2): Oblak; Llorente, Gimenez, Lenglet, Galan; Simeone, De Paul, Barrios, Lino; Griezmann, Alvarez. Coach: Simeone

REAL MADRID (4-3-3): Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Rüdiger, Mendy; Tchouaméni, Camavinga, Bellingham; Rodrygo, Mbappé, Vinicius. Coach: Ancelotti