The Copa del Rey final promises a thrilling encounter as Atlético Madrid and Real Sociedad face off at La Cartuja. Both sides arrive with contrasting dynamics but share the same ambition: lifting one of Spain’s most prestigious trophies. For Atlético, this is a chance to crown their season with silverware after a demanding European campaign, while Real Sociedad seek to repeat their 2020 triumph and secure a direct ticket to the next Europa League.

Atlético Madrid’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Atlético Madrid enter this final after a challenging run of fixtures. Their recent 1-2 defeat against FC Barcelona in mid-April reflects a mixed period, with just one win in their last five matches across all competitions. Despite that, their Copa del Rey journey has been impressive, recording 4 wins and only 1 loss with an average of 2.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. The team’s attacking efficiency has often been decisive in knockout rounds, particularly in the early stages of matches.

At home, Atlético have shown a clear pattern of early intensity: Over 0.5 goals have been scored in the first half of each of their last 11 home fixtures, and they have won at half time in 6 of their last 10 Copa del Rey games. However, consistency remains an issue, as they have not drawn in their last 19 home matches, often swinging between dominant wins and narrow defeats.

• Last 5 matches: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 defeats


• Average goals scored: 1.4 | Conceded: 1.8


• Last head-to-head vs Real Sociedad: 3-2 (March 2026)


• Head-to-head record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses

These numbers suggest that Atlético’s attacking potential remains strong, but defensive lapses could be costly against a side as efficient as Real Sociedad. The team’s ability to maintain focus after intense midweek fixtures will be a key factor in this final.

Real Sociedad’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Real Sociedad approach the final in excellent form, having drawn 3-3 with Deportivo Alavés in their last outing. Their Copa del Rey campaign has been nearly flawless: 6 wins and 1 draw, averaging 2.0 goals scored and only 0.7 conceded per match. The Basque side have proven remarkably resilient, remaining unbeaten in 20 of their last 21 Copa del Rey games and in their last 15 away fixtures in this competition.

Offensively, Real Sociedad have been consistent, scoring in each of their last 21 matches. Their second-half performances stand out, with over 0.5 goals scored after the break in 20 of their last 21 games. This ability to grow into matches could be crucial against an Atlético side that tends to start strong but occasionally fades late on.

• Last 5 matches: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats


• Average goals scored: 2.2 | Conceded: 2.0


• Unbeaten streak away in Copa del Rey: 15 matches


• Haven’t lost at half time in 25 of their last 26 away games

Real Sociedad’s balance between defensive organization and attacking creativity makes them a dangerous opponent. Their recent improvement under new management has revitalized their European hopes, and this final represents both a symbolic and practical opportunity to secure continental football.

Atlético Madrid vs Real Sociedad Tactical Overview

This final is expected to be open and competitive, with both teams capable of creating chances. Atlético’s direct style and early pressure could test Real Sociedad’s defensive line, while the Basque side’s fluid attacking transitions may exploit any fatigue in Atlético’s ranks following their demanding European schedule. Historically, their meetings have been lively: the last encounter ended 3-2, and both sides have scored in their last two league clashes.

Given the attacking trends, the match could feature goals on both ends. Atlético’s strength in the first half contrasts with Real Sociedad’s second-half resilience, setting the stage for a dynamic and unpredictable final. The psychological factor will also play a role, as Atlético seek redemption after recent setbacks, while Real Sociedad aim to capitalize on their momentum and freshness.

BetMines Prediction

According to the latest data, the probabilities for the 1X2 market are balanced: Atlético Madrid win (1) – 39%, Draw (X) – 24%, and Real Sociedad win (2) – 37%. The Both Teams To Score – Yes option stands out with a 60% probability, supported by the fact that both teams have found the net in most of their recent encounters and in the majority of their Copa del Rey fixtures this season.

Atlético Madrid vs Real Sociedad prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 60% probability.