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Prediction published on May 8, 2025 3:24 PM by Dario in Spain - La Liga | Modified on May 9, 2025 3:39 PM
At the Civitas Metropolitano Stadium on Saturday, May 10, Atlético Madrid host Real Sociedad in a match valid for Matchday 35 of La Liga. Diego Simeone’s team is heading towards the end of a disappointing season, having failed to reach the latter stages of any competition: eliminated in the Champions League Round of 16 by historic rivals Real Madrid, knocked out in the Copa del Rey semi-finals by Barcelona, and long out of the La Liga title race. Despite lacking ambition in terms of standings, Los Colchoneros still aim to mathematically secure a spot in next season’s UEFA Champions League with a home win over Real Sociedad — they currently hold a ten-point lead over sixth place with only four matches remaining. While Simeone’s side is one step away from achieving their minimum seasonal goal, Alguacil’s Real Sociedad dream of grabbing points to rejoin the race for a UEFA Europa League place, currently just three points away. This fixture at the Civitas Metropolitano is crucial, as Real Sociedad’s last three matches include direct clashes with Celta Vigo (currently seventh), Girona, and a potentially title-deciding final day against Real Madrid.
The lack of seasonal objectives is reflected in Atlético Madrid’s recent results: in their last three matches, they lost 1-0 to Las Palmas, won 3-0 against Rayo Vallecano, and drew 0-0 away to Alavés. Overall, they’ve lost only once in their last five La Liga games, scoring 9 goals and conceding 4.
At home, Simeone’s side has been dominant — earning 40 of their 67 points from 12 wins, 4 draws, and just 1 loss, with an average of 2 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per match at the Civitas Metropolitano. They did lose two recent home matches across all competitions, both against Barcelona (2-4 in La Liga and 0-1 in the Copa del Rey semi-final), but comfortably won the other two against Valladolid (4-2) and Rayo Vallecano (3-0).
Real Sociedad are coming off a goalless Basque derby draw against Athletic Club, extending their winless streak to four matches — two draws and two losses. Their last win was a 3-1 away success at Las Palmas on April 6. Over their last five fixtures, they’ve averaged 1 goal scored and 1.2 conceded per match.
Away from home in La Liga, the Basques have collected 19 of their 43 points through 5 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats. Their recent away form includes a 2-2 draw at Villarreal and a 1-0 loss to Alavés. More broadly, they have won just one of their last eight away games in all competitions.
Atlético Madrid will be without suspended striker Julián Álvarez, but they boast a strong home record against Real Sociedad — winning eight of the last ten home meetings. Real Sociedad haven’t won away to Atlético since the 2012/13 season.
Simeone’s team has been a fortress at home this season, averaging 2 goals per game and conceding fewer than one. On the other side, Real Sociedad desperately need points to keep pace in the battle for eighth place, but face a tough task — they’ve won just once in La Liga in 2025.
According to the BetMines algorithm, Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad prediction sees Atlético Madrid are clear favorites for the win.
ATLÉTICO MADRID (4-4-2): Oblak; Llorente, Le Normand, Lenglet, Galán; Simeone, De Paul, Barrios, Gallagher; Griezmann, Sørloth. Manager: Diego Simeone
REAL SOCIEDAD (4-1-4-1): Álex Remiro; Traoré, Jon Martín, Aguerd, Muñoz; Zubimendi; Kubo, Méndez, Marín, Gómez; Oyarzabal. Manager: Imanol Alguacil
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Atlético Madrid
Real Sociedad
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
3
7
2
8
2.5
5
5
4
6
3.5
7
3
4
6
4.5
8
2
7
3