On Tuesday, November 4th, at the Metropolitano Stadium, Atletico Madrid host Union Saint-Gilloise in the fourth round of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League group stage. The home side, stuck at 3 points after the first three games, are looking for a win to bounce back from their heavy 4-0 defeat against Arsenal and revive their hopes of reaching the Round of 16. The goal is still within reach for Diego Simeone’s team, currently fourth in La Liga behind Barcelona, Villarreal, and Real Madrid, and among the most equipped squads to go far in the competition. Union Saint-Gilloise, on their historic first-ever appearance in the Champions League, have collected the same number of points as the Colchoneros so far but are coming off two heavy defeats against Newcastle United and Inter Milan. The Belgian side, managed by David Hubert, are well aware of the difficulties awaiting them at the Metropolitano but are not willing to give up on the dream of a historic qualification for the knockout stage. It will therefore be a clash between two teams with different motivations: on one side Atletico, under pressure to win and stay in contention for qualification, and on the other Union, eager to write another important chapter in their club’s history.

Atletico Madrid's recent form and key stats

Atletico Madrid come into this match on the back of two straight La Liga wins without conceding a goal: 0-2 against Real Betis and 3-0 against Sevilla. In their last five matches across all competitions, the Colchoneros have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 defeat, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per match.

In their first three Champions League fixtures, Atletico Madrid have earned 3 points, having beaten Eintracht Frankfurt (5-1) and lost to Liverpool (3-2) and Arsenal (4-0). Simeone’s men have scored an average of 2.33 goals and conceded 2.66 per game in Europe so far.

At home, Atletico’s record is encouraging: unbeaten in their last 12 matches at the Metropolitano and winners of their last four Champions League home games. Ahead of the clash against the Belgian side, Simeone will be without Pablo Barrios, while Nico Gonzalez remains doubtful.

Union Saint-Gilloise's recent form and key stats

Union Saint-Gilloise are enjoying a strong run of form, coming off three consecutive wins between the Jupiler Pro League and the Belgian Cup, the latest being a 1-4 away victory against Waregem. Over their last five matches in all competitions, the Belgians have recorded 4 wins and 1 defeat, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

Union Saint-Gilloise have also collected 3 points in their first three Champions League outings, thanks to a 1-3 win over PSV Eindhoven and two 0-4 defeats to Newcastle United and Inter Milan. Hubert’s team have averaged 1 goal scored and 3 conceded per match in Europe, showing clear defensive weaknesses on the continental stage.

The Yellow and Blues have been impressive away from home, with just one loss in their last 14 away matches across all competitions, winning five of their last six. They are therefore a side not to be underestimated, even when playing away from the Joseph Marien Stadium.

Atletico Madrid vs Union Saint-Gilloise prediction by BetMines

BetMines predicts a one-sided match: Atletico Madrid have a 56% chance of winning, while Union Saint-Gilloise’s chances stop at 20%.

The Spanish side are clear favorites in this crucial Champions League fixture, with both home advantage and superior international experience on their side. If the Colchoneros want to qualify for the next round, they simply cannot afford to drop points against a debutant like Union Saint-Gilloise.

From a betting perspective, BetMines tips the market “both teams to score – No”, expecting a match where the visitors might fail to find the net, just as they did in their last two Champions League games against Inter Milan and Newcastle United.

Furthermore, Atletico’s defense has been solid at home, keeping clean sheets in their last two home matches against Osasuna and Sevilla.

Probable lineups Atletico Madrid vs Union Saint-Gilloise

ATLETICO MADRID (4-4-2): Oblak; Llorente, Gimenez, Hancko, Ruggeri; Simeone, Koke, Baena, Gonzalez; Sorloth, Alvarez. Coach: Simeone

UNION SAINT-GILLOISE (3-4-2-1): Scherpen; Mac Allister, Burgess, Leysen; Niang, De Perre, Zorgane, Khalaily; Hadj, Giger; Rodriguez. Coach: Hubert