On Thursday, October 9, at the Ernst Happel Stadium in Vienna, Austria has the chance to take another step toward qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup as they host San Marino, bottom of Group H. The home side, coached by the experienced Ralf Rangnick, could move to the top of the group with a win, overtaking Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Austrians have everything it takes to defeat San Marino, a national team that has collected zero points in the first five matches of the World Cup Qualifiers. Austria, in fact, can rely on a group of experienced players in every area of the pitch and, after reaching the Round of 16 in the last UEFA Euro, they dream of returning to the World Cup finals for the first time in 28 years (France ’98). San Marino, on the other hand, arrives in Vienna with the sole objective of trying to secure their first point of this qualifying campaign, even though, as shown by the first-leg match won 4-0 by Alaba and teammates, it will once again be a nearly impossible mission for Roberto Cevoli’s men.

Austria's Form and key stats

Austria comes into this match in excellent form, having won or drawn nine of their last ten matches across all competitions. In their most recent outing, on September 9, Ralf Rangnick’s team defeated Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-1 thanks to goals from Sabitzer and Laimer.

After the first four matchdays in Group H, Austria has a perfect record (12 points), averaging 2.25 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded per match. They confirm themselves as one of the most solid and well-balanced teams in the group: efficient in attack, led by the goals of Sabitzer and Arnautovic, and well-organized defensively, thanks also to the leadership of David Alaba.

Home form is another strength: Austria has won their last four home World Cup qualifying games and is unbeaten in their last six matches in front of their fans, with a record of four wins and two draws.

San Marino's Form and key stats

San Marino is desperately looking to return to earning points after a streak of five consecutive defeats. Their most recent official loss came on September 6, when they suffered a heavy 6-0 home defeat to Bosnia and Herzegovina. Three days later, on September 9, they lost again, 3-1, in a friendly against Malta.

The national team led by Roberto Cevoli is still stuck at zero points in the standings, having lost all five matches played so far. The numbers tell the story of San Marino’s difficulties: an average of just 0.2 goals scored and 3.6 conceded per game, confirming the long-standing offensive and defensive struggles that have characterized the Sammarinese side for years.

Austria vs San Marino Prediction by BetMines

BetMines’ prediction for Austria vs San Marino strongly favors a large home win. Not surprisingly, Austria’s victory probability is estimated at 84%, while a draw and a San Marino win stand at 12% and 4%, respectively.

As for the expected goal trend, a match with more than two total goals (Over 2.5) is anticipated, given San Marino’s tendency to concede goals both at home and away. Austria’s attack could take advantage of this to improve their scoring stats and goal difference — a potentially decisive factor in the qualification race.

Considering San Marino’s limited attacking threat, especially away from home, BetMines also suggests the bet “both teams to score – No” with a 69% probability, predicting another match in which Roberto Cevoli’s side could once again fail to find the net.

The last meeting between these two national teams dates back to June 10, when Austria won 4-0 away, thanks to a brace from Arnautovic and goals from Baumgartner and Gregoritsch.

Probable lineups Austria vs San Marino

AUSTRIA (4-4-2): Schlager; Laimer, Lienhart, Alaba, Mwene; Schmid, Seiwald, Grillitsch, Sabitzer; Baumgartner, Gregoritsch. Coach: R. Rangnick.

SAN MARINO (4-3-3): Colombo; Fabbri, Cevoli, Valentini, Riccardi; Golinucci, Capicchioni, Zannoni; Contadini, Nanni, Berardi. Coach: R. Cevoli.