At the Ernst Happel Stadion in Vienna, on Thursday, March 20, Austria and Serbia face off in the first leg of the UEFA Nations League play-off, which will determine promotion or relegation in League A. The hosts have earned this opportunity by finishing second in Group 3 of League B, trailing Norway, with a total of 11 points (three wins, two draws, and one defeat). Under coach Ralf Rangnick, Austria has become one of the most promising teams in European football, as evidenced by their first-place finish in Group D of the last European Championship, ahead of France and the Netherlands. Serbia, on the other hand, is fighting to retain its place in League A, following an underwhelming campaign in which they finished third in Group 4, behind Spain and Denmark. It has been a season to forget for Dragan Stojkovic's squad, as they not only struggled in the Nations League but also had a disappointing European Championship, finishing last in Group C with just two points—behind England, Denmark, and Slovenia. To make matters worse, Serbia will have to deal with multiple suspensions in this first leg, although some key players will return for the second leg on Sunday, March 23.

Austria's Shape & Key Statistics

One of Austria’s biggest strengths is its defensive solidity, having conceded just five goals in six Nations League matches. Offensively, Rangnick's side has also performed well, averaging 2.33 goals per game.

Austria comes into this match with a four-game unbeaten streak (three wins and one draw), including a 1-1 home draw against Slovenia in their most recent Nations League fixture. At home, they remain undefeated with two wins and one draw.

Serbia's Shape & Key Statistics

Serbia is struggling, with only one win in their last six matches (three draws and two losses). Additionally, they had the worst attack in League A, scoring just three goals in the Nations League group stage.

Away from home in Group 4, Serbia failed to win a single match, managing only a draw in Switzerland while losing to Spain and Denmark. They scored just one goal in total in these three matches, while conceding an average of two goals per game.

Austria vs Serbia Prediction & Tactical Overview

A major boost for Austria is the return of David Alaba to the squad, although the Real Madrid defender is expected to start on the bench for the first leg. Up front, Austria will rely on Marko Arnautovic, who has scored five goals this season for Inter Milan.

Serbia arrives in full emergency mode, as they will be missing key players due to suspensions, including Nikola Milenkovic (who has been outstanding for Nottingham Forest), Strahinja Pavlovic, Andrija Zivkovic, and Filip Terzic. However, their attack will feature the Mitrovic-Vlahovic duo, with the Juventus striker eager to redeem himself after losing his starting spot at his club.

As far as the prediction is concerned, the hosts are clear favourites, both because of their best moment of form and the home factor, not to mention all the absences affecting Stojkovic's line-up. 

For these reasons, the BetMines algorithm prediction for the Austria vs Serbia match leans clearly towards the victory of the hosts. 

• BetMines algorithm prediction for the match Austria vs Serbia predicts the 1 sign at 65%
• BetMines algorithm prediction for the match Austria vs Serbia predicts the X sign at 21%
• BetMines algorithm prediction for the match Austria vs Serbia predicts the 2 sign at 14%

Predicted Lineups Austria vs Serbia

Austria (4-2-3-1): Schlager; Querfeld, Lienhart, Trauner, Mwene; Grillitsch, Seiwald; Schmid, Baumgartner, Wimmer; Arnautovic. Coach: Rangnick

Serbia (3-4-1-2): Petrovic; Babic, Mimovic, Erakovic; Topic, Maksimovic N, Lukic, Maksimovic A; Samardzic; Vlahovic, Mitrovic. Coach: Stojkovic