The upcoming Eredivisie clash between AZ Alkmaar and Ajax promises to be one of the most intriguing fixtures of round 22. Taking place at the AFAS Stadion, this encounter brings together two sides with contrasting recent form but equally high ambitions. AZ currently sit sixth in the table with 30 points, while Ajax occupy fourth place, still among the top contenders in Dutch football. The hosts will look to build on their strong home record and the psychological advantage of their emphatic 6-0 victory over Ajax in the KNVB Cup earlier this season.

AZ Alkmaar’s Recent Form and Key Stats

AZ Alkmaar have shown flashes of brilliance throughout the campaign, combining attacking flair with periods of defensive instability. Their recent 1-1 draw against FC Twente on February 3 highlighted both their resilience and their occasional inability to close out matches. Over their last five games, AZ have recorded one win, two draws, and two defeats, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match. Despite these mixed results, their overall Eredivisie record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses demonstrates a competitive edge that keeps them in the race for European qualification.

At home, AZ remain a consistent attacking force. They have scored at least once in their last 13 home league matches and in 24 of their last 25 Eredivisie fixtures overall. Their offensive reliability is further underlined by the fact that they have found the net in 37 of their last 40 matches in all competitions. The team also tends to grow stronger as the game progresses, with over 0.5 goals scored in the second half in 23 of their last 25 Eredivisie outings. Moreover, AZ have led at half time in 12 of their last 18 home matches, a sign of their ability to start games with intensity and control.

However, defensive lapses have occasionally cost them valuable points, as seen in defeats to NEC (1-3) and Fortuna (3-4). These results exposed vulnerabilities that Ajax will surely look to exploit. Still, with their attacking mindset and home advantage, AZ will aim to dictate possession and press high from the start, hoping to replicate the dominance they displayed in their previous encounter with the Amsterdam giants.

Ajax’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Ajax enter this match in a period of inconsistency. Their 2-2 draw against Excelsior on February 1 extended a run of mixed results that has seen them win two, draw two, and lose one of their last five matches. Despite their attacking potential—averaging 1.8 goals scored per game—they have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per match. Over the course of the Eredivisie season, Ajax’s record stands at 10 wins, 8 draws, and 3 defeats, with 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average.

Ajax’s matches have been consistently high-scoring affairs. Over 1.5 total goals have been recorded in each of their last 40 games, and over 2.5 goals have been scored in their last 14 away fixtures. The team’s attacking prowess is undeniable, having scored in their last 12 Eredivisie matches, but their defensive frailties are equally evident—Ajax have conceded at least one goal in their last 13 away league games. Both teams have scored in each of Ajax’s last 11 away Eredivisie matches, underlining their tendency to engage in open, end-to-end contests.

Another notable trend is Ajax’s strong starts: they have led at half time in seven of their last ten matches, including their last three away games. However, maintaining that advantage has often been a challenge, as lapses in concentration have allowed opponents back into matches. The memory of the 6-0 defeat to AZ in January will still linger, and Ajax will be eager to restore pride and prove their resilience in Alkmaar.

Head-to-Head and Tactical Overview

Recent history strongly favors AZ Alkmaar in this fixture. In their last five meetings with Ajax, AZ have recorded four wins and one draw, scoring an average of 2.8 goals per match while conceding just 0.6. The most recent encounter—a stunning 6-0 victory for AZ—was a statement performance that exposed Ajax’s defensive disorganization and inability to cope with sustained pressure. This psychological edge could play a crucial role as the teams meet again.

From a tactical perspective, AZ are expected to adopt a possession-based approach, pressing high and looking to exploit Ajax’s defensive gaps. Their attacking rhythm, especially in the second half, has been a consistent strength. Ajax, on the other hand, will rely on their offensive creativity and quick transitions to counter AZ’s dominance in midfield. Given both teams’ attacking tendencies and the statistical trends pointing toward goals, this match could once again deliver an entertaining, high-scoring spectacle.

• AZ have scored in 37 of their last 40 matches.


• Ajax have seen over 2.5 goals in each of their last 14 away games.


• Both teams have scored in Ajax’s last 11 away Eredivisie fixtures.


• AZ are unbeaten in their last five head-to-head meetings with Ajax.

AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax Prediction and Final Analysis

Considering the attacking form of both sides and their defensive vulnerabilities, another open and goal-filled encounter seems likely. AZ’s home consistency and psychological advantage from their recent cup triumph give them a slight edge, but Ajax’s offensive firepower ensures they remain a dangerous opponent. The balance of probabilities suggests that both teams will find the net, with the potential for multiple goals throughout the match.

AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax prediction by BetMines:
Over 2.5 goals with 61% probability.