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Prediction published on Jan 12, 2026 9:04 PM by Dario in Netherlands - KNVB Beker | Modified on Jan 12, 2026 9:04 PM
The KNVB Cup reaches its Round of 16 stage as AZ and Ajax face off on Wednesday, January 14, at 21:00. The clash at the AFAS Stadion promises to be one of the most intriguing fixtures of the round, with both sides eager to continue their cup journey. AZ will look to build on their recent win, while Ajax arrive in Alkmaar in excellent form and with plenty of attacking confidence. With both teams known for their offensive style, this encounter could deliver plenty of excitement and goals.
AZ approach this cup tie after a narrow 1-0 victory over FC Volendam on January 10, a result that ended a five-match winless streak before the winter break. In their last five matches across all competitions, AZ have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeat, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Their attacking leader this season has been Troy Parrott, who has already netted nine goals and continues to be a decisive figure in front of goal.
At home, AZ have been extremely reliable. They have avoided defeat in 19 of their last 20 home matches and have scored at least once in 19 of those. Their consistency at the AFAS Stadion makes them a tough opponent for any visiting side. In the KNVB Cup, AZ have won their only match so far this season, scoring three goals and conceding one. Historically, their cup games tend to be open affairs, with over 1.5 goals scored in each of their last 15 KNVB Cup fixtures and at least one second-half goal in the last 11.
Ajax come into this match in excellent shape, having won 2-3 away at Telstar on January 11. Under their current momentum, they have collected 13 points from their last five Eredivisie matches, showing a clear improvement in performance. Their last five games across all competitions have produced 4 wins and 1 draw, with an impressive average of 3.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match. Mika Godts has been the standout performer, contributing eight goals and six assists so far this season.
Ajax’s attacking power is undeniable, but their defensive record away from home remains a concern. They have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 16 away matches. Despite that, they have been prolific on the road, with over 2.5 goals scored in each of their last 11 away fixtures. In the KNVB Cup, Ajax have also been dominant, winning their only match this season by scoring seven goals and conceding two. Their matches are rarely dull, with over 1.5 goals scored in each of their last 35 games in the competition.
This KNVB Cup tie brings together two sides with contrasting recent trajectories. AZ have rediscovered some confidence after a difficult run, while Ajax are enjoying a strong spell of form and scoring freely. The home side will rely on their solid record in Alkmaar and the finishing ability of Parrott, whereas Ajax’s attacking depth and creativity could make the difference in key moments.
Historically, AZ have had the upper hand in recent meetings, remaining unbeaten in the last five encounters and winning four of them. However, Ajax’s current momentum and attacking rhythm suggest that this could be a much tighter contest. Both teams have shown a tendency to produce high-scoring matches, and with both attacks in good shape, goals are expected on both ends.
Given the data and recent performances, this match could turn into a thrilling battle where neither side dominates completely. AZ’s home strength and Ajax’s offensive firepower point towards a balanced and entertaining encounter that may well be decided by fine margins.
AZ vs Ajax prediction from BetMines: Draw (X) with 22% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
AZ
Ajax
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
1
9
1.5
1
9
2
8
2.5
3
7
4
6
3.5
6
4
7
3
4.5
9
1
10
0