The postponed fixture of the sixteenth round of the Eredivisie brings an intriguing clash as AZ Alkmaar host Excelsior at the AFAS Stadion on January 21. The home side are looking to regain consistency after a series of mixed results, while the visitors aim to move further away from the lower part of the table. With both teams showing contrasting strengths, this encounter promises to be a lively midweek battle in Alkmaar.

AZ Alkmaar’s Recent Form and Key Stats

AZ Alkmaar enter this match with a clear need to stabilize their performances. Their recent 3-1 defeat against PEC Zwolle highlighted defensive vulnerabilities that have cost them valuable points. Despite that setback, AZ remain within reach of European qualification spots, sitting eighth in the Eredivisie standings with 28 points. Their campaign has been marked by inconsistency, alternating between dominant wins and unexpected losses.

In their last five matches across all competitions, AZ have recorded two victories, one draw, and two defeats, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Their attacking potential is undeniable, but lapses in concentration at the back have often undone their good work. Season-long statistics reinforce this pattern: eight wins, four draws, and six losses, with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match.

At home, however, AZ remain a formidable force. They have avoided defeat in 20 of their last 21 home league games and have scored in 24 of their last 25 Eredivisie fixtures. The AFAS Stadion has consistently witnessed goals, with over 0.5 goals scored in the first half of each of their last 12 home matches. Moreover, AZ have led at halftime in seven of their last ten home league games, underlining their tendency to start strongly in front of their supporters.

• AZ have scored in 37 of their last 40 Eredivisie matches.


• Over 0.5 goals in the second half have been recorded in 23 of their last 25 league games.


• AZ’s last head-to-head meeting with Excelsior ended in a 4-0 victory on March 10, 2024.

These numbers suggest that AZ’s attacking rhythm rarely falters at home, even when their defensive line shows signs of fragility. The challenge for the hosts will be to maintain focus and avoid the lapses that have cost them points in recent weeks.

Excelsior’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Excelsior arrive in Alkmaar with a mixed record that reflects both resilience and inconsistency. Their latest outing, a 2-2 draw against Telstar, followed a heavy 5-1 defeat to PSV Eindhoven. Despite these setbacks, Excelsior have shown flashes of quality, including a 2-1 win over PEC Zwolle and a memorable 2-1 victory against Ajax earlier in the season. These results demonstrate their ability to challenge stronger opponents when given space to counterattack.

Currently sitting fourteenth in the Eredivisie with 20 points, Excelsior’s season has been defined by their struggle to maintain defensive solidity. Their record of six wins, two draws, and ten losses comes with an average of 1.1 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per match. In their last five games, they have managed two wins, one draw, and two defeats, scoring 1.2 goals per game while conceding twice as many.

Defensively, the visitors have been vulnerable away from home. They have conceded at least one goal in 19 of their last 20 away matches, and over 0.5 goals have been scored in the second half in 18 of their last 20 away fixtures. This trend suggests that Excelsior often struggle to maintain concentration after the break, something AZ’s attack will look to exploit.

• Excelsior have scored in most of their recent matches but rarely keep clean sheets.


• They have averaged 2.0 goals conceded per game in their last five outings.


• Excelsior’s away form remains a concern, with defensive lapses frequently costing them points.

Nevertheless, Excelsior’s fighting spirit and ability to surprise stronger teams make them a dangerous opponent. Their counterattacking approach could pose problems for AZ, especially if the home side leave space behind their defensive line.

AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Analysis and Prediction

This fixture brings together two sides with very different ambitions but similar issues in consistency. AZ Alkmaar will look to dominate possession and press high, using their attacking depth to unsettle Excelsior’s defense early on. The home side’s strong record at the AFAS Stadion and their ability to score in nearly every match make them clear favorites on paper.

Excelsior, on the other hand, will likely adopt a cautious approach, focusing on defensive organization and quick transitions. Their recent performances show that they can find the net even against top-tier teams, but their defensive record away from home remains a major weakness. If they fail to contain AZ’s early pressure, the match could quickly tilt in favor of the hosts.

Historically, AZ have had the upper hand in this matchup, winning three of the last five meetings and averaging three goals per game against Excelsior. Given the current form and statistical trends, another high-scoring encounter seems likely, with AZ expected to control proceedings for most of the match.

BetMines Prediction: Home Win (1) with 73% probability.