Azerbaijan host Lithuania on October 4 in Round 3 of UEFA Nations League Group D2, with both sides still unbeaten in the competition. Lithuania lead the group with four points, two ahead of their hosts, after the teams drew 1-1 in their first meeting on September 27. Azerbaijan have yet to win in the group, but their recent home results offer encouragement. Lithuania arrive with a stronger start to the campaign, although their wider away record gives them a challenge to overcome. The return fixture is a chance for Azerbaijan to close the gap at the top.

Azerbaijan's Recent Form and Key Stats

Azerbaijan have drawn both of their UEFA Nations League matches so far. After sharing the points with Lithuania, they played out a 0-0 draw against Liechtenstein on October 1. Those results leave them unbeaten but still looking for their first group victory, with averages of 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match. Across their last five matches in all competitions, their record is two wins, two draws and one defeat; they have averaged 0.8 goals both scored and conceded.

The hosts have avoided defeat in their last four matches, winning twice, and their home form provides further grounds for confidence. Azerbaijan have lost only one of their last six at home, winning three. Their current home run stands at three matches without defeat, including two victories. That record contrasts with a more cautious scoring trend in this competition: their last two home UEFA Nations League matches both ended without a goal. A repeat of that pattern would make an opening goal particularly significant.

First-half results have also tended to be tight. Azerbaijan have drawn at half-time in each of their last nine home UEFA Nations League matches and have not led at the interval in their last 18 matches overall. They have also failed to lead at half-time in 21 of their last 22 home games. Those figures do not decide what happens after the break, but they underline how often Azerbaijan have had to wait before gaining any advantage.

Lithuania's Recent Form and Key Stats

Lithuania began their group campaign with a 2-0 win over Liechtenstein before drawing 1-1 with Azerbaijan. One win and one draw give them four points, with group averages of 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match. They followed the Azerbaijan draw with a 3-0 friendly win against Andorra on September 30, so their three most recent results give them reason to approach the return meeting with confidence.

The visitors have lost just once in their last five matches, recording two wins and two draws alongside that defeat. Over the same period, they have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. Their wider away record is less reassuring: Lithuania have suffered seven defeats in their last ten matches on the road. Turning their positive start in Group D2 into an away win is the task facing them here.

Lithuania have not led at half-time in any of their last 19 UEFA Nations League matches. Like Azerbaijan, they have repeatedly gone into the interval without a lead, even though they currently hold the higher position in the group. Their recent results show they can score and keep goals out, but the contrast between that form and their record on the road is central to this match preview.

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania Match Analysis

The 1-1 draw in September left little between these sides in their current campaign. Their head-to-head summary from Azerbaijan's perspective stands at no wins, two draws and one defeat, so the hosts have yet to beat Lithuania in the meetings covered by the supplied record. At the same time, the two most recent encounters both ended level. That history makes it difficult to treat home advantage as a guarantee, even with Azerbaijan's stronger recent results on their own ground.

There is a clear contrast in the form lines. Azerbaijan have not won a group match yet, but they have avoided defeat in both and have won two of their last three home games. Lithuania have collected more points and scored more frequently in this UEFA Nations League campaign, but seven losses in their last ten away matches remain a concern. With both teams unbeaten in Group D2, this fixture tests whether Azerbaijan's home record or Lithuania's stronger group start proves more influential.

The recent first-half trends on both sides suggest that patience could matter. Azerbaijan's two latest home matches in this competition produced no goals, while neither team has regularly established a lead by half-time in the runs recorded above. A close contest is therefore plausible, though Lithuania's recent wins and Azerbaijan's home victories show that either side has results to build on. For the hosts, converting a solid home run into their first group win would also end their winless head-to-head record against Lithuania.

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania prediction from BetMines: Azerbaijan win (1) with 48% probability.