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Prediction published on Dec 9, 2025 9:02 PM by Dario in Europe - Europa League | Modified on Dec 9, 2025 9:02 PM
The Europa League group stage continues with an intriguing clash between FC Basel 1893 and Aston Villa at St. Jakob-Park. The Swiss side are fighting to stay in contention for the knockout rounds, while the Premier League outfit arrive in Switzerland in excellent form and looking to consolidate their position at the top of the standings. With both teams showing attacking intent in recent weeks, this encounter promises to deliver plenty of excitement and goals.
Basel enter this fixture sitting 24th in the Europa League standings, having collected six points from their two home victories. Their performances at St. Jakob-Park have been the cornerstone of their campaign so far, as they have struggled to replicate that success on the road. The Swiss side warmed up for this match with a 2-1 win over Winterthur on December 7, extending their unbeaten run to three matches in all competitions. Over their last five outings, Basel have recorded two wins, two draws, and one defeat, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
At home, Basel have been particularly reliable in front of goal, scoring in each of their last eight matches at St. Jakob-Park. Veteran midfielder Xherdan Shaqiri remains their talisman, having found the net three times in his last five Europa League appearances — all of them coming on home soil. The former Liverpool and Stoke City player also contributed a goal in the recent domestic win, underlining his importance to the team’s attacking play. With 11 goals and 10 assists across all competitions this season, Shaqiri’s creativity and experience will be vital if Basel are to upset their English visitors.
Despite their strong home form, Basel’s defensive record remains a concern. They have conceded in three of their last five matches and will need to tighten up at the back against one of the most potent attacks in the competition. Still, their resilience and ability to perform in front of their fans make them a dangerous opponent for any visiting side.
Aston Villa travel to Switzerland in outstanding form, having won their last seven matches in all competitions. Their most recent triumph came in the Premier League, where they defeated leaders Arsenal 2-1 on December 6. Under Unai Emery, the Villans have been one of the most consistent teams in Europe, winning four of their five Europa League group-stage matches and sitting joint-top of the standings alongside Lyon and Midtjylland.
In their last five games, Aston Villa have maintained a perfect record with five wins, scoring an average of 2.2 goals per match while conceding 1.2. Their attacking unit has been particularly impressive, with multiple players contributing to the scoring tally. Dutch forward Donyell Malen has been in fine form, netting three times in the Europa League and registering eight goal contributions across all competitions. With 73% of his shots on target in Europe, Malen could once again play a decisive role, especially if Ollie Watkins is rested or rotated.
However, Villa’s defensive record away from home remains a slight worry. They have managed just one clean sheet in their last five matches and have conceded two or more goals in three of their last five away fixtures. Moreover, they have only one win in their last six Europa League away games, a statistic that Basel will look to exploit. Still, the English side’s attacking power and current momentum make them formidable opponents for any team in the competition.
This encounter brings together two sides with contrasting strengths. Basel rely heavily on their home advantage and the creativity of Shaqiri to unlock defenses, while Aston Villa thrive on quick transitions and attacking fluidity under Emery’s guidance. The Swiss side will likely adopt a compact shape, aiming to frustrate the visitors and hit on the counter, whereas Villa are expected to dominate possession and press high up the pitch.
Both teams have shown a tendency to score and concede, suggesting that this could be an open and entertaining contest. Basel have scored in each of their last eight home matches, while Aston Villa have found the net in all of their last ten games across competitions. Given these trends, goals at both ends seem highly probable. The hosts will look to Shaqiri and Zeqiri for inspiration, while Villa’s attacking trio of Malen, Diaby, and McGinn will aim to continue their prolific run.
Historically, English teams have found it challenging to win in Switzerland, and Basel’s strong home record could make this a tricky outing for the Villans. Nevertheless, Emery’s side have the quality and confidence to secure a positive result, especially given their recent form and attacking depth. Expect a competitive match with plenty of goalmouth action and moments of individual brilliance from both sides.
The most likely outcome is Both Teams To Score (Yes) with a 62% probability. Both sides have been consistent in front of goal, and their recent defensive records suggest that neither is likely to keep a clean sheet in this Europa League clash.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Basel
Aston Villa
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
1
9
1.5
3
7
2
8
2.5
3
7
2
8
3.5
5
5
6
4
4.5
6
4
9
1