The second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League first qualifying round between BATE Borisov and AF Elbasani promises to be a tense and finely balanced affair. After a 1-1 draw in Albania, the tie remains wide open, with both teams eager to secure progression to the next round. Although BATE are officially the home side, the match will take place in Sumgait, Azerbaijan, due to restrictions on Belarusian clubs hosting European fixtures. This neutral setting removes any real home advantage, setting the stage for an unpredictable encounter.

BATE Borisov’s Recent Form and Key Stats

BATE Borisov enter this decisive clash following a challenging run of results. In their last five matches across all competitions, they have recorded just one win, one draw, and three defeats, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Their current Conference League campaign began with the 1-1 draw against AF Elbasani, where they managed to equalize in the second half through a determined effort. However, their domestic form has been far from convincing, and they have struggled to maintain consistency throughout the season.

One of the main concerns for BATE has been their slow starts. They have lost at half time in their last three matches, often finding themselves chasing the game after the break. Additionally, at least one team failed to score at half time in 30 of their last 31 matches, suggesting that their games tend to open up more in the second period. From a statistical perspective, Under 10.5 corners have been recorded in 19 of their last 20 fixtures, indicating a relatively low number of set-piece opportunities.

In the Conference League, BATE’s record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with an average of one goal scored and one conceded per match. Despite their historical pedigree, the Belarusian side have struggled to replicate past successes, and their current form leaves them with plenty to prove in this return leg.

AF Elbasani’s Recent Form and Key Stats

AF Elbasani approach this match in better overall shape. Their last five outings have produced two wins, one draw, and two defeats, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. The Albanian side showed resilience in the first leg, taking the lead just before halftime before being pegged back by BATE’s equalizer. That performance demonstrated their attacking intent and ability to compete effectively on the European stage.

Elbasani’s attacking consistency has been one of their main strengths. They have scored at least one goal in each of their last 14 away matches, a remarkable run that underlines their offensive reliability. Furthermore, Over 1.5 total goals have been scored in each of their last 13 matches, while Over 0.5 goals in the second half has occurred in their last 11 games. These trends suggest that Elbasani’s fixtures tend to be lively, particularly after the interval, and that they rarely leave the pitch without finding the net.

In the Conference League, their record mirrors that of BATE — 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses — with identical averages of one goal scored and one conceded. Statistically, they rank second in the current qualifying group, just behind BATE, but their away scoring record could give them a psychological edge heading into this decisive encounter.

BATE Borisov vs AF Elbasani: Tactical Overview and Match Analysis

This second leg is expected to be a tight and competitive contest. The first meeting between these sides ended 1-1, and both teams demonstrated moments of attacking quality as well as defensive vulnerability. With the tie finely poised and no true home advantage for BATE, the match could hinge on small details — a defensive lapse, a set-piece, or a moment of individual brilliance.

BATE’s main challenge will be to overcome their recent inconsistency and rediscover the composure that once made them a dominant force in their domestic league. Their tendency to concede early goals could prove costly if repeated here. On the other hand, Elbasani’s confidence on the road and their ability to score consistently make them a dangerous opponent, especially if they can strike first and force BATE to chase the game.

Given the statistical trends, another balanced and open match seems likely. Both sides have shown they can find the net, and their recent records suggest that goals could come in both halves. The neutral venue adds an extra layer of unpredictability, but it may also encourage both teams to play with freedom, knowing that away goals no longer carry extra weight in European competition.

Head-to-Head and Key Numbers

• Last head-to-head: 1-1 on 2026-07-07.


• Head-to-head record: BATE 0 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses.


• Average goals in head-to-head: 2.0 per match.


• Win probabilities — BATE: 25%, Draw: 24%, AF Elbasani: 50%.


• BTTS — Yes: 49%, No: 51%.


• Over/Under 2.5 — Over: 49%, Under: 51%.

Prediction and Final Verdict

All indicators point toward another closely fought encounter between BATE Borisov and AF Elbasani. The first leg showed that both teams are capable of scoring, and their respective form lines suggest that neither side will sit back in this decisive match. BATE’s defensive fragility and Elbasani’s attacking consistency could combine to produce another game where both teams find the net.

Considering the statistical balance and the open nature of the first leg, the most plausible scenario is a match featuring goals at both ends. The neutral venue further levels the playing field, making it difficult to identify a clear favorite. However, Elbasani’s superior recent form and away scoring streak might give them a slight edge if they can maintain their composure under pressure.

BATE Borisov vs AF Elbasani prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 49% probability.