Bayer 04 Leverkusen welcome Celje to the BayArena on September 16, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 19:00 local time. The two clubs begin their Europa League league-phase campaigns from very different positions, with Leverkusen ranked seventh in the competition and Celje 31st. Although the hosts have made an inconsistent start, their recent attacking numbers and stronger run of results give them an advantage in this fixture. Celje arrive in Leverkusen after a difficult period both on and off the pitch, but their reliable away scoring record suggests they should not be dismissed as an attacking threat. The visitors reached the Conference League round of 16 last season before beginning the current campaign in the Champions League qualifiers, where their progress ended in the third round. They now face a Leverkusen side that reached the Europa League final on its previous appearance in this competition.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen Recent Form and Key Statistics

Bayer 04 Leverkusen enter this Europa League match after drawing 2-2 with FC Augsburg on September 12. That result continued their uneven opening to the season, but their wider five-game record remains encouraging: three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their attacking return has been particularly notable, with an average of 2.8 goals scored per match during that sequence. At the other end, they have conceded an average of 1.2 goals, showing that their matches have offered opportunities to both Leverkusen and their opponents.

The hosts have also developed a consistent pattern of goal-filled fixtures. Each of their last 10 matches has produced over 1.5 total goals, while at least one second-half goal has been recorded in all 10. That second-half trend extends even further in the Europa League, where Leverkusen's last 13 matches have contained at least one goal after the interval. These figures indicate that the German side regularly remain involved in active contests throughout the full 90 minutes rather than relying only on an early breakthrough.

Leverkusen's position of seventh in the Europa League ranking is considerably higher than Celje's 31st place, and the supplied win probabilities reinforce their status as favorites. The hosts have been assigned a 55% chance of victory, compared with 23% for the draw and 22% for an away win. However, the 2-2 draw against Augsburg also underlines why Celje's scoring record must be taken seriously. Leverkusen have strong offensive numbers, but they have not kept opponents completely quiet across their latest five-match sequence.

Celje Recent Form and Key Statistics

Celje travel to Germany after suffering a 2-1 defeat against Bravo on September 12. Their last five matches have delivered two wins and three defeats, with averages of 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. That balance illustrates their current issue clearly: they are finding the net at a respectable rate, but they are also allowing opponents enough chances to turn competitive matches against them. The defeat to Bravo was their third loss in four games, making this a demanding moment to face a side averaging nearly three goals across its latest five outings.

The visitors have also experienced disruption away from the field. Vitor Campelos left the club following what was reportedly a heated exchange with the hierarchy, meaning Celje approach this Europa League assignment without a manager. That situation adds another layer of difficulty to a fixture in which they already begin as outsiders. Their European path has included a step up from last season's Conference League round-of-16 appearance and an unsuccessful attempt to advance beyond the third qualifying round of the Champions League.

Despite those concerns, Celje possess several statistical trends that could make this contest less straightforward for Leverkusen. They have scored at least once in each of their last 14 away matches, and they have found the net in 25 of their last 26 games across all venues. Their previous 12 away fixtures have all produced over 1.5 total goals. There has also been at least one first-half goal in 32 of Celje's last 35 matches, while they have led at the interval in nine of their previous 14 away games. In the Europa League specifically, however, Celje have been behind at half-time in each of their last three away appearances.

• Bayer 04 Leverkusen: three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five matches.
• Celje: two wins and three defeats across their latest five fixtures.
• Leverkusen have averaged 2.8 goals scored in that five-game period.
• Celje have scored in each of their last 14 away matches.
• Over 1.5 total goals have been recorded in Leverkusen's last 10 games and Celje's last 12 away games.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Celje Match Analysis

The central question is whether Celje can turn their consistent scoring record into a positive result against a more productive attacking team. Their run of goals in 14 consecutive away fixtures offers a reason for confidence, but three defeats in their last five matches and an average of 1.4 goals conceded leave them vulnerable. The difference in recent offensive output is significant, as Leverkusen's average of 2.8 goals scored is exactly twice Celje's figure across the same five-match sample.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen should have the upper hand, although their 2-2 draw with Augsburg suggests that control cannot be taken for granted. The hosts' repeated second-half goal trend could become especially important if Celje make another positive start away from home. Celje have frequently reached half-time in a strong position across their general away schedule, yet their last three Europa League trips have all seen them trail at the break. That contrast adds intrigue to the opening phase before Leverkusen's established second-half pattern comes into focus.

The available goal probabilities point to an open contest rather than a cautious one. Over 2.5 goals carries a 54% probability, while both teams to score is rated at 51%. Nevertheless, the clearest overall conclusion comes from the teams' recent results, the Europa League rankings and Leverkusen's superior scoring average. Celje have enough attacking consistency to challenge the home defense, but their recent defeats, managerial disruption and goals-conceded average make the hosts the more convincing side in the result market.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Celje prediction from BetMines: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win (1) with 55% probability.