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Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction: Match Preview and Analysis | Bundesliga 28-02-2026

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

1 - 1

FT

FSV Mainz 05

BayArena
Tobias Stieler
moderate rain 12.55 °C

Prediction published on Feb 26, 2026 3:01 PM by Dario in Germany - Bundesliga | Modified on Feb 26, 2026 3:01 PM

The Bundesliga weekend continues with an exciting clash between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05, scheduled for Saturday, February 28. The home side, currently sixth in the table, aims to close the gap to the top four, while Mainz sit in the lower mid-table, still looking to create distance from the relegation zone. Leverkusen’s recent qualification for the Champions League Round of 16 has boosted morale, and the team now seeks to carry that momentum into domestic competition. For Mainz, the challenge will be to resist one of the most consistent home sides in the league.


Bayer Leverkusen’s Recent Form and Key Stats


Bayer 04 Leverkusen approach this fixture in solid form, having drawn 0-0 with Olympiacos in Europe earlier in the week. In their last five matches across all competitions, they have recorded two wins, two draws, and one defeat, averaging 1.4 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per game. In the Bundesliga, their season record of 12 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses underlines a campaign of stability and attacking intent, with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match.


At home, Leverkusen have been particularly reliable. They have scored at least once in each of their last 13 Bundesliga home games, and in 24 of their last 26 league matches, there has been at least one goal before half time. The Werkself have also led at the break in 7 of their last 11 home fixtures, showing their ability to start games strongly. Their seven home victories this season have often come against teams in the lower half of the table, while defeats have generally been limited to top-tier opponents.


Offensively, the team has been led by a balanced attack, with several players contributing regularly. Defensively, six of their league wins have come with a clean sheet, a testament to their organization and discipline. Despite a few injuries, Leverkusen’s squad depth allows them to maintain a high level of performance, especially in front of their home supporters.


FSV Mainz 05’s Recent Form and Key Stats


FSV Mainz 05 arrive in Leverkusen after a 1-1 draw against Hamburger SV, a result that extended their run to three wins, one draw, and one defeat in their last five matches. During this period, they have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Over the course of the Bundesliga season, Mainz’s record stands at 5 wins, 7 draws, and 11 losses, with an average of 1.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match.


However, Mainz’s away form remains a concern. They have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 14 Bundesliga away games and have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road this season. In fact, they have allowed goals in 28 of their last 30 league matches overall. The second half of their away games tends to be particularly eventful, with over 0.5 goals scored after the break in each of their last 13 away fixtures. Despite these defensive struggles, Mainz have shown resilience, winning at half time in 6 of their last 10 matches, a sign that they can start games well even away from home.


In attack, Mainz rely heavily on a few key players to make the difference, while their defensive line has been weakened by injuries. The team’s challenge will be to remain compact and take advantage of counterattacking opportunities against a Leverkusen side that often dominates possession.


Head-to-Head and Tactical Overview


The recent history between these two sides favors Leverkusen. In their last five head-to-head meetings, the Werkself have won four and drawn one, scoring an average of 2.4 goals per match while conceding 1.2. The most recent encounter, played on October 18, 2025, ended in a thrilling 4-3 victory for Leverkusen. Historically, matches between these teams tend to be competitive but rarely one-sided, with narrow scorelines being a common theme.


Leverkusen’s attacking rhythm and home advantage make them favorites, but Mainz’s fighting spirit and ability to find the net in recent weeks suggest that this could be another open contest. The visitors’ defensive vulnerabilities, especially away from home, might give Leverkusen the edge, yet Mainz’s counterattacking potential could still cause problems for the home defense.


Given the attacking profiles and recent trends of both teams, goals are expected at both ends. Leverkusen’s consistency in scoring and Mainz’s tendency to concede but also find the net point toward an entertaining match with multiple scoring opportunities.


BetMines Prediction


Leverkusen vs Mainz prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 51% probability.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 - Predictions

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Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05: Pre-match Stats Comparison

This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

FSV Mainz 05

Under

Over

Under

Over

0.5

0%

0

100%

10

0%

0

100%

10

1.5

10%

1

90%

9

10%

1

90%

9

2.5

40%

4

60%

6

40%

4

60%

6

3.5

60%

6

40%

4

70%

7

30%

3

4.5

70%

7

30%

3

90%

9

10%

1

BetMines

Standings of Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga

Regular Season - Ranking

Team

6

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

34

17

8

9

68:47

59

1.74

L
W
W
L
D
10

FSV Mainz 05

34

10

10

14

44:53

40

1.18

D
L
W
L
W
UEFA Champions League
UEFA Europa League
UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
Relegation Play-off
Relegation

Who will win ?

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05: Frequently asked questions

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When will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 be played?
The Bundesliga match between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 will be played on February 28, 2026 at 14:30.
Where will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 be played?
The match between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 will be played at BayArena, Leverkusen - Germany
Who will referee Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05?
The referee for the match will be Tobias Stieler.
What are the 1X2 betting odds for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga?
The odds are: Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win 1.70, draw 4.00, FSV Mainz 05 to win 4.50.
What are the betting odds for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 for Over/Under 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga?
The odds are Over 2.5 at 1.61 and Under 2.5 at 2.30.
Will both Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 score in the Bundesliga?
The odds for both teams to score are 1.66, while the odds for at least one team not to score are 2.10.
What is the most likely correct score for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga?
The most likely correct score is 1-1, with odds of 7.5.
What are the head-to-head results between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05, Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 4 times, FSV Mainz 05 won 0, and 1 ended in a draw.

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