The final round of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League league phase brings a decisive clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Villarreal at the BayArena. The German side, currently 20th in the standings, are fighting to secure a playoff spot, while the Spanish visitors, sitting 35th, have already been eliminated. For Leverkusen, this is a must-win encounter to keep their European campaign alive, whereas Villarreal will aim to end their disappointing run on a positive note.

Bayer Leverkusen’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Bayer Leverkusen approach this fixture under pressure but with renewed confidence after a narrow 1–0 victory over Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga on January 24, 2026. That win ended a three-match losing streak and restored some belief ahead of this crucial European tie. In the Champions League, their record stands at two wins, three draws, and two defeats, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match. Despite recent setbacks, the German champions remain within reach of the playoff places.

At home, Leverkusen have been relatively consistent, avoiding defeat in three of their last four matches across all competitions. Their attacking line has been reliable, with at least one goal scored in each of their last 15 home fixtures. However, defensive lapses have cost them dearly, as they have conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game in their last five outings. The absence of key defender Edmond Tapsoba due to injury could again test their backline stability.

• Champions League record: W 2 · D 3 · L 2


• Average goals scored: 1.4 | Average conceded: 2.0


• Last 5 matches: 2 wins, 3 defeats


• At least 1 goal scored in each of their last 15 home games

Offensively, the hosts will rely on the creativity of Jonas Hofmann and the finishing prowess of Álex Grimaldo and Patrik Schick, who have combined for 19 goals across competitions this season. With the home crowd behind them, Die Werkself will look to dominate possession and press high from the start.

Villarreal’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Villarreal have endured a torrid Champions League campaign, failing to win any of their seven matches so far (D1, L6). Their average of 0.7 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per game highlights the imbalance between attack and defense that has plagued their season. The Spanish side’s most recent outing in the competition ended in a 2–1 home defeat to Ajax, where they squandered a lead and conceded a stoppage-time winner. Domestically, they also fell 2–0 to Real Madrid on January 24, extending their losing streak to three matches in all competitions.

Villarreal’s away form in Europe offers little encouragement. They are winless in their last five visits to German opposition, drawing three and losing two. Their defensive frailties have been compounded by injuries to key defenders Willy Kambwala, Pau Cabanes, and Juan Foyth, leaving the backline vulnerable. On the positive side, the return of Pape Gueye to midfield could add some much-needed stability, while forwards Tani Oluwaseyi and Gerard Moreno will be tasked with finding the net.

• Champions League record: W 0 · D 1 · L 6


• Average goals scored: 0.7 | Average conceded: 2.1


• Last 5 matches: 2 wins, 3 defeats


• Over 0.5 goals scored in the second half in 23 of their last 25 matches


• At least one team failed to score at half-time in 28 of their last 30 matches

Despite their struggles, Villarreal will aim to show resilience and pride in their final group fixture. However, their lack of confidence and defensive absences make it difficult to envision a turnaround against a motivated Leverkusen side.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Villarreal Analysis and Prediction

This encounter presents contrasting motivations. Bayer Leverkusen have everything to play for, while Villarreal are merely seeking redemption after a disappointing campaign. The German side’s superior form, home advantage, and attacking depth make them clear favorites. Historically, however, Leverkusen have struggled against Villarreal, failing to win in their previous four meetings (D1, L3). Yet, given the current context, this match could mark a turning point.

Expect Leverkusen to control possession and create more chances, while Villarreal may rely on counterattacks and set pieces. The visitors’ defensive instability and lack of confidence could open the door for an early breakthrough from the hosts. With both teams averaging over one goal per game recently, a high-scoring affair is possible, especially considering that over 2.5 goals have been recorded in 60% of their recent fixtures combined.

In summary, Leverkusen’s need for victory, coupled with Villarreal’s poor defensive record, points toward a home win. The German side’s attacking consistency and the visitors’ vulnerability make this a favorable matchup for Die Werkself to secure their playoff qualification.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Villarreal prediction by BetMines:
Home Win (1) with 41% probability.