Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund clash on Sunday, May 11 in the penultimate matchday of the Bundesliga, each driven by vastly different motivations. The hosts, after drawing 2-2 with Freiburg, have effectively handed the Bundesliga title to Bayern Munich, extinguishing the slim hopes of repeating last season’s historic success. With two matches left, Leverkusen’s sole aim is to finish strong in what will be Xabi Alonso’s final season as manager, as he confirmed himself. Under his leadership, the team claimed its first-ever Bundesliga title, a DFB-Pokal (German Cup), a German Super Cup, and reached a UEFA Europa League final, later lost to Atalanta. It's safe to say Leverkusen have shed the long-standing nickname “Neverkusen,” symbolic of their historical underachievement. In their final home game of the season at the BayArena, they host one of the most in-form teams of this Bundesliga run-in – Borussia Dortmund – who arrive off the back of three consecutive wins. Kovac's men, after a rough start to the campaign, have turned things around and now sit just one point behind fourth place, which secures Champions League qualification – a competition they were still part of just two weeks ago, eliminated only in the quarterfinals by Barcelona. Dortmund are under pressure to win their final two games, against Leverkusen and Holstein Kiel, and hope Freiburg slip up in their decisive final match against third-placed Eintracht Frankfurt.

Bayer Leverkusen Recent Form and Key Stats

Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions, with 2 wins and 3 draws. In their latest Bundesliga outing, they came from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 at Freiburg, with late goals from Wirtz and Tah. In the league, they're on a 7-match unbeaten streak (4 wins, 3 draws).

The Werkself boast the second-best attack and the second-best defense in the league, having scored 68 goals and conceded 38 – an average of 2.13 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per match. At home, they’ve picked up 34 points from 16 games (10 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses), averaging more than 2 goals scored per game and just over 1 conceded. In their last three home fixtures, they beat Bochum 3-1, drew 0-0 with Union Berlin, and defeated Augsburg 2-0.

Borussia Dortmund Recent Form and Key Stats

Borussia Dortmund are also on a 5-game unbeaten run in all competitions, with 4 wins and 1 draw. Most recently, they cruised to a 4-0 win over Wolfsburg, thanks to braces from Guirassy and Adeyemi. That result took the Black and Yellows to 51 points (15 wins, 6 draws, 11 losses), moving them into 5th place, just one point behind Freiburg.

However, Dortmund's away form has been among the worst in the Bundesliga this season: just 18 points from 16 away games (5 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses), averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per match. That said, their away form has improved recently – just 1 defeat in their last 5 away matches (3 wins, 1 draw).

Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Tactical Preview

Matches between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund, like the 3-2 first-leg win for Leverkusen, are often goal-packed and entertaining, as both sides favor attacking and open football. Unsurprisingly, they are the second and third-best attacking teams in the Bundesliga, behind only Bayern Munich.

The hosts, with no pressure and nothing to play for except a farewell win for Alonso at home, are expected to play free-flowing football, likely resulting in a high-tempo match without much tactical restraint.

The visitors, on the other hand, need all three points to keep their Champions League hopes alive and are expected to push forward aggressively, especially if they sense a slip from Freiburg or Frankfurt.

Given the context, the Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund prediction from the BetMines algorithm leans toward both teams to score.

• Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund prediction from the BetMines algorithm predicts that both teams will score at least one goal at 63%.
  
  
• Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund prediction from the BetMines algorithm predicts that at least one of the two teams will not score a goal at 37%.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund Predicted Lineups

BAYER LEVERKUSEN (3-4-2-1): Kovář; Tapsoba, Tah, Hincapié; Frimpong, Xhaka, García, Grimaldo; Wirtz, Buendía; Schick. Manager: Xabi Alonso

BORUSSIA DORTMUND (3-4-2-1): Kobel; Süle, Anton, Bensebaini; Ryerson, Nmecha, Groß, Svensson; Brandt, Adeyemi; Guirassy. Manager: Niko Kovac