Belarus and Albania meet on November 15, 2026, in a UEFA Nations League Group C1 finale that will decide who finishes first. Albania lead the group by two points, so a draw would preserve their advantage, while Belarus need a win to move above them. The match is scheduled for 17:00 local time at Illovszky Rudolf Stadion in Budapest. Both teams won 2-0 on matchday five and arrive with strong defensive records, but their recent head-to-head results favour the visitors. That contrast makes this a compelling contest between Belarus’s current form and Albania’s established advantage in this fixture.

Belarus’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Belarus kept their chance of winning Group C1 alive with a 2-0 victory over San Marino on November 12. They have now recorded four consecutive clean sheets since losing 2-0 to Albania, a run that gives them a clear defensive foundation for the decisive match. That defeat to Albania is their only loss across their last 11 games; Belarus have won six times during that stretch. They are also unbeaten in their last five home matches.

In their five UEFA Nations League matches this season, Belarus have registered three wins, one draw and one defeat, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game. Their last five matches across competitions have produced three wins, a draw and a loss, with the same scoring and conceding averages. Those figures suggest Belarus have been able to stay competitive without needing a high volume of goals, although beating Albania will require them to overturn the result of the previous meeting.

There are signs of tight matches in Belarus’s home data. Four of their last 12 home fixtures finished without a goal, as did three of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League. In addition, at least one team has failed to score before half-time in each of Belarus’s last 30 matches. None of those trends determines the outcome here, but they underline why the opening stages may be important for a side that cannot settle for a draw.

Albania’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Albania maintained their two-point lead by beating Finland 2-0 on November 12. They have won four of their five Group C1 fixtures, losing the other 2-1 away to Finland. Across those five Nations League matches, Albania have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. Their wider last-five record is also four wins and one defeat, with the same averages, putting them in a strong position ahead of the final matchday.

Albania’s defensive results offer further encouragement. They have kept three clean sheets in their last five games, including the shutout against Belarus earlier in the group. Matches involving Albania have also stayed below 3.5 total goals in each of their last 23 outings, each of their last 15 UEFA Nations League games and each of their last 10 away fixtures in this competition. Those figures point to a team accustomed to competing in matches with a limited scoring range, even while averaging two goals per game in this Nations League campaign.

The visitors also hold the stronger record in this matchup. Albania are unbeaten in five consecutive meetings with Belarus, winning four and drawing one. Belarus’s head-to-head averages over those five games are 0.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match. Albania won the most recent meeting 2-0 on September 26, giving them a recent example of the result they will want to build upon. With a draw sufficient to retain first place, they enter the fixture with more than one route to finishing top.

Belarus vs Albania Match Analysis

The central question in this UEFA Nations League preview is whether Belarus’s improved defensive sequence can help them produce the win they need. Four clean sheets in a row and a five-match unbeaten home run support their case, but Albania have already beaten them in this group and have avoided defeat in their last five meetings. Belarus therefore have to do something they have not managed in that recent head-to-head run: finish a match against Albania as winners.

Goals data presents a balanced picture rather than a simple forecast. Both teams scored in only one of their last six meetings, and Albania’s long run of matches under 3.5 goals suggests another controlled contest is possible. At the same time, Albania’s four wins from five group games and average of 2.0 goals scored show they have been effective in attack. Belarus’s recent shutouts give them reason to believe they can keep the match close, but a close match alone will not be enough to take first place from the visitors.

Albania’s two-point cushion and unbeaten head-to-head sequence give them the clearer path through this group finale. Belarus’s form makes a home win a genuine objective rather than a foregone conclusion, yet the visitors’ record against them and their current group lead make Albania avoiding defeat the most coherent reading of the available evidence.

Belarus vs Albania prediction from BetMines: Draw or Albania (X2) with 77% probability.