Belarus host San Marino in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday, October 3, with kick-off scheduled for 16:00 local time. Neither side has won in its first two group games: Belarus have one point from a draw, while San Marino have lost both matches. Their recent results tell different stories, however. Belarus drew 0-0 with Finland on September 29, while San Marino lost 3-0 to Albania after a 7-0 defeat to Finland. Belarus have won both previous meetings between the teams without conceding, but their own scoring difficulties mean this fixture is not simply a question of past head-to-head results.

Belarus Recent Form and Key Stats

Belarus are still looking for their first win of this Nations League campaign. They lost 2-0 in their opening game before the goalless draw against Finland, leaving them with no goals scored and an average of one conceded per match in the group. Their winless run in the competition now stands at six games, during which they have scored only twice.

Their broader recent record is more encouraging: Belarus have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. That contrast matters for this preview. Their recent form across all matches shows they can find goals, but their Nations League games have been much tighter.

Under 2.5 total goals have been recorded in each of Belarus’s last nine Nations League matches and each of their last nine home games in the competition. Four of their last 13 Nations League fixtures have finished without a goal at all. Those figures underline the difficulty Belarus have had in turning games in this tournament into high-scoring contests, even when they have an opportunity to improve their record.

San Marino Recent Form and Key Stats

San Marino arrive after consecutive Nations League defeats, with no goals scored and an average of five conceded across their first two group games. The 3-0 loss to Albania on September 29 followed a 7-0 defeat to Finland. Their struggles extend beyond those two results: they have lost their last 12 matches and have gone without a win in 38 of their last 40.

San Marino’s last five matches have produced one draw and four defeats. They have averaged 0.4 goals scored and 2.8 conceded in that span, while the article’s longer eight-game view records just four goals scored and no victories. Finding a way to score remains a concern alongside their run of defeats.

The defensive numbers are particularly difficult for the visitors. San Marino have conceded at least once in each of their last 15 matches and in each of their last 18 away games. They have also failed to win at half-time in their last 40 matches. Unlike Belarus’s recent Nations League fixtures, San Marino’s last nine matches have all featured over 2.5 total goals, reflecting how often their games have opened up despite their limited scoring return.

Belarus vs San Marino Match Analysis

The head-to-head record gives Belarus a clear advantage: they have won both previous meetings, averaging 3.5 goals scored and none conceded across those two games. San Marino’s current losing run and record of conceding in 18 straight away matches add to the case for the hosts. Belarus, though, must improve on a Nations League start in which they have yet to score.

The goal trends pull in opposite directions. Belarus’s nine consecutive under-2.5 results in this competition point towards a controlled, low-scoring game, while San Marino’s nine straight matches with at least three total goals suggest another possibility. Recent performances also leave both teams seeking more in attack: Belarus have scored twice in their past six Nations League games, and San Marino have averaged 0.4 goals across their last five matches.

Belarus’s unbeaten head-to-head record and San Marino’s sustained run of defeats make the home side the stronger pick, even if Belarus’s recent Nations League results offer reason for caution. The key question is whether the hosts can turn a defensive result like the Finland draw into their first group victory.

Belarus vs San Marino prediction from BetMines: Belarus win (1) with 63% probability.