Belgium host Italy at the Stade Roi Baudouin in Brussels on November 15, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 19:45 local time. This UEFA Nations League League A Group 1 meeting closes the first stage with top spot still at stake: Italy lead the group on 10 points, while third-placed Belgium have nine and remain in contention for a top-two finish. Both teams arrive after comeback victories on November 12. Belgium beat Türkiye 2-1 away, and Italy defeated France 3-1 at home. Recent meetings offer another reason to watch the goals markets closely, with 29 goals across the sides' last 10 encounters.

Belgium's Recent Form and Key Stats

Belgium began their Nations League campaign by winning 2-0 away to Italy on September 25. Two defeats against France subsequently checked their progress, but victories over Türkiye kept them in the race heading into this final group fixture. Their most recent result, a 2-1 win in Türkiye, came after they had fallen behind. That response gives Belgium a positive result to carry into a home match against the current group leaders, although their earlier victory over Italy does not remove the need for another strong performance.

Across five Nations League games, Belgium have recorded three wins and two defeats, with no draws. Their averages of 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match show both their capacity to score and the goals they have allowed. Belgium have also led at half-time in each of their last three Nations League matches, a notable pattern before a fixture in which an early advantage could matter. More broadly, 25 of their last 27 matches in the competition have ended without a draw. Their home record offers a note of caution for anyone expecting goals automatically: two of Belgium's last 10 home matches finished without either side scoring.

Italy's Recent Form and Key Stats

Italy travel to Brussels as Group 1 leaders after coming from behind to beat France 3-1 on November 12. Their five-match Nations League record stands at three wins, one draw and one defeat. Over that stretch, Italy have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. The attacking average is higher than Belgium's, but the two sides share the same goals-conceded average, leaving Italy with plenty to consider against a team that already beat them in this group.

Since the home defeat to Belgium, Italy have scored in each of their following four matches, reaching at least three goals in three of them. That run helps explain how they enter this meeting in first place. Their defensive record is less reassuring: Italy have not kept a clean sheet in any of their five Nations League games. There has also been a second-half goal in 18 of their last 20 matches, a pattern that suggests the contest could continue to develop after the interval rather than being decided solely by its opening stages.

Belgium vs Italy Match Analysis

The September meeting gives Belgium a clear reference point: they won 2-0 away to Italy. Across their last five head-to-head matches, however, Belgium's record is one win, one draw and three defeats, with averages of 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Looking across a wider set of 10 meetings, the teams have produced 29 goals in total, and both sides have scored in six of those games. Those figures point to a history that includes plenty of goals without suggesting that every encounter follows the same pattern.

For this UEFA Nations League preview, the recent scoring records are particularly relevant. Belgium have scored in their latest win over Türkiye and led at half-time in three straight competition matches. Italy, meanwhile, have scored in four successive games since losing to Belgium, including three matches with at least three goals. Italy's run of five Nations League games without a clean sheet gives the hosts reason to believe they can find an opening, while Italy's 2.2-goal average underlines the challenge facing Belgium.

The stakes add to an already balanced matchup: a single point separates the teams before kick-off, yet Belgium begin in third and Italy in first. Belgium have the home setting and the memory of their earlier win; Italy bring the stronger recent scoring average and arrive fresh from a three-goal comeback victory. Belgium's two scoreless home matches among their last 10 are a reminder that a high-scoring game is not guaranteed. Even so, the combination of Italy's attacking form, both teams' goals-conceded averages and the scoring history between them makes over 2.5 goals a coherent reading of the available evidence.

Belgium vs Italy prediction from BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 57% probability.