Belgium host Türkiye at Stade Maurice Dufrasne on Friday, October 2, as UEFA Nations League Group A1 continues. Belgium opened their campaign with a 2-0 win over Italy before losing 1-0 to France, leaving them second in the group. Türkiye sit fourth after defeats in both of their opening matches. The visitors have yet to earn a point, but their unbeaten run on the road gives them reason to approach this trip with confidence. For Belgium, the fixture offers an immediate chance to respond to Monday’s setback.

Belgium’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Belgium began their Nations League campaign by beating Italy 2-0. Their second match brought a narrower outcome: a 1-0 home defeat to France on September 28. Belgium had 35% possession and produced 0.69 expected goals in that game. They took 12 shots, though only two were on target, both from Dodi Lukebakio. Those figures underline the challenge they faced in creating clear openings against France, despite keeping the score close.

Across their last five matches, Belgium have recorded two wins, one draw and two defeats, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Their Nations League record stands at one win and one loss, with averages of 1.0 goal scored and 0.5 conceded per match. Monday’s defeat was also their first in seven home games, ending a six-match unbeaten sequence at home.

Several longer-term figures add context to this Belgium vs Türkiye preview. At least one second-half goal, counting both teams, has featured in 19 of Belgium’s last 21 matches. Belgium have led at half-time in 11 of their last 18 games. Two of their last 10 home matches have finished without a goal, although the France defeat showed that home advantage alone does not guarantee an attacking breakthrough.

Türkiye’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Türkiye have found their introduction to Nations League A1 difficult. A 1-0 loss to France was followed by a 4-1 defeat against Italy on September 28, leaving them without a point after two matches. Against Italy, they conceded three goals inside the opening half hour. Their attacking figures told a more encouraging story: Türkiye finished with 2.89 expected goals and created three big chances over the 90 minutes, despite the heavy defeat.

The visitors have lost four of their last five games in all competitions, winning the other. Over that span, they have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match. In this Nations League campaign, their averages are 0.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. Those numbers reflect a difficult start at both ends, even if the chances created against Italy suggest they are capable of troubling an opponent.

Away form provides a contrast to those recent results. Türkiye are unbeaten in their last five matches on the road, a run dating back to June last year. At least one second-half goal, counting both sides, has appeared in 20 of their last 22 matches. Two of Türkiye’s last 10 Nations League away games have ended goalless, as have two of their last 10 matches in the competition overall. The trip to Belgium will test whether their road record can hold up after two opening group defeats.

Belgium vs Türkiye Match Analysis

The contrast is clear: Belgium have already beaten Italy in this group, while Türkiye conceded four against the same opponent. Belgium’s recent home record also weighs in their favour, despite the loss to France. In their last three home meetings with Türkiye, Belgium have avoided defeat, winning once and drawing twice. Their most recent head-to-head meeting, on June 3, 2011, ended 1-1; across the five meetings in the supplied record, the teams have one win each and three draws.

There are reasons to expect a contest rather than a straightforward home win. Belgium struggled to turn their 12 shots into on-target efforts against France, and Türkiye’s 2.89 expected goals against Italy show that their last result did not reflect a complete absence of chances. Türkiye’s five-match unbeaten away run is another counterweight to their poor start in A1. Belgium, though, have been more effective in the group so far and return home seeking a response. Whether they can make that advantage count will shape this UEFA Nations League meeting.

Belgium vs Türkiye prediction from BetMines: Belgium win (1) with 49% probability.