Benevento and Hellas Verona meet in the fourth round of the 2026/27 Serie B season on Friday, September 11. Kick-off is scheduled for 19:00 local time at the Stadio Ciro Vigorito. This fixture returns after five years, with the previous head-to-head ending in a 3-0 victory for Hellas Verona on March 3, 2021. The hosts are still searching for their first league win after taking one point from three matches, while Verona arrive encouraged by a commanding 5-0 success over Arezzo. Despite the contrasting momentum described by those results, the match probabilities give Benevento a 51% chance of winning, compared with 26% for the draw and 23% for an away victory. Those figures add another layer of intrigue to a contest between two teams still trying to establish consistency in the early stages of the Serie B campaign.

Benevento Recent Form and Key Statistics

Benevento have made a difficult start to life in Serie B following their arrival from Serie C. Expectations remain significant because the club has previously been a prominent presence at this level and is considered to have a competitive squad. However, the positive opening shown in the Coppa Italia has not yet been followed by convincing league results.

The home side have recorded no wins, one draw and two defeats in their opening three Serie B fixtures. Their only league point came from a home draw against Sudtirol, while their most recent match ended in a 1-0 defeat against Ascoli on September 5. That result left Benevento 17th in the Serie B ranking provided for this fixture.

Across their last five matches in all competitions, Benevento have collected one victory and one draw while suffering three defeats. They averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game during that sequence, numbers that underline the difficulties they have experienced at both ends of the pitch. Their league averages are more restrained, standing at 0.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match.

Home form nevertheless provides Benevento with reasons for encouragement. They have scored at least once in 20 of their last 21 home matches, an impressive sequence that suggests they are regularly capable of finding a route to goal in front of their own support. Benevento have also avoided being behind at half-time in 19 of their last 21 home fixtures. Starting securely and staying competitive through the opening period may therefore be especially important against opponents arriving after a five-goal victory.

Hellas Verona Recent Form and Key Statistics

Hellas Verona began the season quietly, but their recent results have created a more positive outlook. The visitors have followed their initial difficulties with improved performances in cup and league competition, and the emphatic 5-0 win against Arezzo on September 6 was the clearest sign of their attacking potential. Although Arezzo played with ten men, the size of the victory still gave Verona confidence ahead of this trip.

The visitors have taken one win, one draw and one defeat from their first three Serie B games. They are 10th in the ranking supplied for the match and have averaged 2.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per league fixture. Their scoring average is considerably higher than Benevento’s early-season figure, even though both teams have earned only one league victory between them so far.

Verona’s wider five-match record consists of two wins, two draws and one defeat. Over that period, they have scored an average of 2.2 goals per game while conceding 1.2. Those statistics present the away side as the more productive attacking team in recent matches, with the Arezzo result further strengthening that impression.

The original match context also describes Verona’s squad as having considerable quality and retaining a number of footballers with Serie A experience. Their group was not dismantled, and the recent improvement in results has reinforced the belief that they possess the resources to compete strongly in Serie B. Even so, the structured win probabilities do not make them favourites for this particular away fixture, so converting their recent momentum into an effective performance will be essential.

Benevento vs Hellas Verona Match Analysis

The available evidence creates a finely balanced preview. Hellas Verona bring the stronger recent record, having lost only once in five matches and scored 2.2 goals per game across that run. Benevento, by contrast, have been beaten three times in their last five and are still without a Serie B victory. Verona also won the latest meeting 3-0, although the complete head-to-head summary is much closer: from the five listed encounters, Benevento have two wins and Verona have three, with no draws. Both sides averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded across those meetings.

However, Benevento’s home statistics should prevent the contest from being viewed only through the lens of their poor league start. Scoring in 20 of 21 home matches shows a notable level of reliability, while their record of avoiding a half-time deficit in 19 of 21 home games indicates that they are often difficult to separate from opponents early on. This is consistent with the 72% probability attached to at least one first-half goal without necessarily pointing towards early control for either team.

The broader goal markets suggest a match more likely to produce a moderate total than an extreme one. The probability of under 2.5 goals is 54%, narrowly ahead of the 46% assigned to over 2.5. Meanwhile, both teams to score is rated at 47% for Yes and 53% for No. Those numbers indicate some uncertainty over whether both attacks will contribute, particularly because Benevento have averaged only 0.7 goals in their three league fixtures.

At the same time, the case for at least two total goals is supported by several pieces of data. Verona have averaged 2.3 goals in Serie B and 2.2 across their last five outings, while Benevento’s most recent five matches have featured averages of 1.6 scored and 2.2 conceded. The hosts’ long home scoring run also increases the possibility of their involvement on the scoreboard. With the over 1.5-goal outcome carrying a 71% probability, it offers the clearest middle ground between Verona’s attacking form and the relatively narrow preference for under 2.5 goals.

Benevento vs Hellas Verona prediction from BetMines: Over 1.5 goals with 71% probability.