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Benfica
7:00 PM
August 6, 2026
Hearts
Prediction published on Aug 4, 2026 7:04 PM by Dario in Europe - Europa League | Modified on Aug 4, 2026 7:04 PM
Benfica welcome Hearts to Lisbon on Thursday, August 6, 2026, for the first leg of their UEFA Europa League third qualifying-round tie. Both clubs have an important opportunity at stake across the two matches: the winner will progress to the Europa League playoff round, while the defeated side will transfer to the Conference League league phase. Benfica enter the fixture after eliminating St. Gallen 6-2 on aggregate, including an emphatic 5-0 home victory on July 30. Hearts arrive in less encouraging competitive form following three consecutive defeats, the latest a 2-1 loss away to Aberdeen. With Benfica aiming to establish a commanding advantage before the return leg and Hearts attempting to halt their losing sequence, this Benfica vs Hearts preview points to an important opening contest.
Benfica secured their place in this round by overcoming St. Gallen across two legs. The decisive result came at home, where the Eagles recorded a 5-0 victory on July 30 and completed a 6-2 aggregate success. That performance demonstrated their ability to take control of a European qualifier in Lisbon and gives them a strong result to build upon ahead of another home first leg.
The hosts have won three and lost two of their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.8 goals per game and conceding 1.0. Their Europa League numbers currently stand at one win and one defeat, with averages of 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Benfica have also scored at least once in each of their last 15 matches, while all 15 of those fixtures produced more than 1.5 total goals. These figures underline both their consistent scoring record and the frequency with which their games have moved beyond a single-goal total.
The first half could be particularly important to Benfica's approach. They have avoided a half-time deficit in 21 of their previous 23 matches and have been ahead at the interval in seven of their last ten fixtures. Their home record at the break is similarly notable, with Benfica leading at half time in ten of their last 14 home games. Establishing early control would support their objective of taking a substantial advantage into the second leg.
Corner trends also feature prominently in Benfica's recent matches. More than 7.5 corners were taken in each of their last 20 games, while their previous 12 fixtures all went beyond both 8.5 and 9.5 corners. These are total-match corner figures rather than corners won by Benfica alone, but they still indicate that set-piece situations have appeared regularly in their recent contests.
Hearts began their Scottish Premiership campaign with a 2-1 away defeat to Aberdeen on August 1. That result followed their two losses against Sturm Graz in UEFA Champions League qualifying, a tie they lost 6-0 on aggregate. The visitors therefore travel to Lisbon after three successive competitive defeats, all of which have also extended their run to three consecutive losses away from home.
Across their last five matches, Hearts have collected two wins and three defeats, without a draw. They have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game during that sequence. Compared with Benfica's recent average of 2.8 goals, the visitors have produced less attacking output while allowing goals at a higher rate. Reversing those patterns will be central to their chances of keeping the tie manageable before the second leg.
There are nevertheless several recurring match trends around the visiting side. More than 1.5 total goals have been recorded in each of Hearts' last ten games, while more than 7.5 total corners have been taken in their previous 17 fixtures. In addition, 18 of their last 20 away matches have contained at least one first-half goal. These statistics do not determine which team will score or earn the corners, but they show that Hearts' recent matches have regularly produced early activity and multiple overall goals.
The immediate challenge is to improve on the competitive performances against Sturm Graz and Aberdeen. Facing a Benfica team that scored five in its latest home European fixture places further pressure on Hearts to remain competitive from the opening stages. Their recent away sequence makes that task especially demanding, although the two-legged format means limiting the size of any first-leg deficit would preserve more opportunity for the return fixture.
The contrast in recent numbers gives Benfica a stronger platform going into this Europa League qualifier. The hosts have scored in 15 consecutive matches, average 2.8 goals across their last five and recently defeated St. Gallen 5-0 at home. Hearts, by comparison, have conceded an average of 1.8 goals over their last five games and arrive after three straight competitive losses. The supplied win probabilities also favour Benfica at 61%, compared with 21% for a draw and 18% for Hearts.
Benfica's half-time record may shape the opening phase. Their frequency of leading at the interval, particularly at home, suggests that the first 45 minutes have often been productive for the Eagles. Hearts' away data adds another relevant element, as at least one first-half goal has been scored in 18 of their last 20 matches on the road. Benfica will want to turn that early-game trend into an advantage, whereas Hearts need to prevent the hosts from building momentum.
The broader goal statistics indicate that both clubs have recently been involved in matches clearing 1.5 total goals: Benfica have done so in 15 consecutive fixtures and Hearts in ten. Their games have also consistently exceeded 7.5 total corners, with Benfica's recent corner sequence reaching 20 matches and Hearts' reaching 17. This combination suggests that goalmouth pressure and set-piece situations may be recurring features of the first leg, although the available BTTS figures are evenly divided at 50% for Yes and 50% for No.
For Benfica, the objective is clear: reproduce the authority shown in the 5-0 win over St. Gallen and travel to the second leg with a meaningful cushion. Hearts must instead respond to their recent defeats, improve their defensive record and avoid allowing the match to move beyond their control. The hosts carry the better recent scoring average and stronger result from the previous Europa League round, while the visitors arrive needing a disciplined performance to keep this third qualifying-round tie open.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Benfica
Hearts
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
0
10
1
9
2.5
1
9
2
8
3.5
3
7
7
3
4.5
7
3
10
0