Benfica host Lech Poznań in the Europa League on Thursday, November 5, with kick-off scheduled for 20:00 local time at the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. The teams enter the fixture in contrasting positions in the competition’s rankings: Benfica are first and Lech Poznań are 32nd. The hosts have an unbeaten run at home and have scored consistently, but the visitors arrive after a productive five-match spell of their own. Those trends make this a test of whether Lech can disrupt Benfica’s home form.

Benfica’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Benfica come into the match following a 1-0 win over Alverca on November 2. They have won each of their last five matches, scoring an average of 3.0 goals and conceding 0.8 per game in that span. Their Europa League season record is seven wins, one draw and one defeat, with averages of 3.2 goals scored and 0.9 conceded.

Home results are central to Benfica’s case in this fixture. They are unbeaten in their last 16 home matches and have scored in all 16. They have also scored at least twice in 18 of their last 20 home games. In the Europa League specifically, their last 12 home matches have each contained more than 1.5 total goals, and Benfica have scored in every one of those 12 fixtures. The hosts have won at half-time in each of their last five Europa League home games, giving Lech another measure of how quickly this match could become difficult.

Benfica’s scoring record extends beyond home fixtures: they have found the net in their last 33 matches. Their attack was prominent in the supplied account of their 4-1 Europa League win over Omonia, while their 1-0 result against Alverca shows that their latest victory required only one goal. The broader five-match numbers nevertheless point to a side creating a substantial scoring challenge for visiting opponents.

Lech Poznań’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Lech Poznań beat Wisła Kraków 3-1 on October 31 and have taken three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five matches. They have averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game across that run. Their Europa League season figures stand at three wins, two draws and two losses, with averages of 2.3 goals for and 1.6 against.

The visitors’ current scoring averages offer a stronger picture than their opening three Europa League games, in which they managed one goal. That early goal came in a 1-1 draw with Sunderland after defeats in their first two competition matches. The supplied account also records a 4-0 loss to Crystal Palace in their first Europa League away fixture. Those results underline the challenge of facing the competition’s top-ranked team away from home, even though Lech’s more recent five-match return gives them reason to approach the trip with ambition.

There are contrasting half-time trends to consider. Lech have trailed at the interval in their last four Europa League matches, yet have led at half-time in 11 of their last 16 away games across competitions. Their last 20 matches have all featured at least one second-half goal in total, as have their last 11 away fixtures. A quiet opening period would therefore not, on its own, settle the contest.

Benfica vs Lech Poznań Match Analysis

The clearest difference between the sides is the combination of Benfica’s home record and their Europa League output. Sixteen home matches without defeat, alongside 18 instances of scoring at least twice in their last 20 home games, gives the hosts a strong platform. Lech’s recent average of 2.4 goals scored deserves respect, but their Europa League average of 1.6 conceded leaves them with a demanding defensive assignment.

The head-to-head figures also favour Benfica: they have won both recorded meetings with Lech Poznań, and the most recent finished 4-0 on December 3, 2020. That older result cannot decide this match, but it adds context to the current gap in Europa League rankings. Benfica’s ability to score early at home may be especially important against visitors who have trailed at half-time in four consecutive games in this competition.

Lech’s latest win and their three victories in five matches make a competitive response plausible. Still, Benfica’s recent winning run, sustained home scoring and stronger Europa League season record provide the more convincing case over the full match. The visitors may have opportunities to make this an open contest, but the evidence points most clearly towards the home side taking the result.

Benfica vs Lech Poznań prediction from BetMines: Benfica win (1) with 65% probability.