By winning 2-0 at the Allianz Riviera on Wednesday, August 6, Benfica took a big step forward in the race for the next UEFA Champions League. One week later, the Portuguese side have a great chance to seal their qualification, hosting Nice at the Estádio da Luz with a two-goal advantage earned on the French Riviera. The first leg clearly showed the gap in quality between the two teams: the French side paid for their lack of international experience, while the Portuguese displayed the ruthlessness typical of top clubs. The two-goal cushion puts Bruno Lage’s team firmly in control, with two results out of three in their favor to reach the final playoff at the end of August against either Feyenoord or Fenerbahçe. In fact, the Eagles could even afford to lose by one goal, but it’s hard to imagine that happening in front of their home fans. Fresh from winning the Super Cup, Benfica have not suffered from the departures of key players such as Di Maria and Kokcu, immediately finding the net with young striker Ivanovic and midfielder Florentino, who has been linked with several transfer rumors. For Nice, there is regret over failing to capitalize on home advantage and for their defensive mistakes on the two goals conceded. Now, with two goals to recover, Franck Haise’s men will need nothing short of a sporting miracle to keep their Champions League hopes alive. Given the atmosphere expected at the Estádio da Luz and Benfica’s greater experience in do-or-die matches, it feels like Nice’s return to Europe’s elite competition will have to wait.

Benfica's Recent Form and Key Stats

A great start to the season for Benfica, who, after winning the Portuguese Super Cup against rivals Sporting, defeated Nice 0-2 at the Allianz Riviera. In the away match in France, new signing Franjo Ivanovic—arriving from Union Saint-Gilloise for around €23 million—immediately made the difference. The other goal was scored by midfielder Florentino Luis, targeted by major European clubs including Napoli.

Benfica approach this match full of confidence, riding an 18-match unbeaten streak. The only two defeats in this period came in extra time—against Chelsea in the recent FIFA Club World Cup and against Sporting in the Taça de Portugal final. It’s difficult to imagine Bruno Lage’s men slipping up against the French at the Estádio da Luz, where they have lost only three times in 2025—two of those defeats being to Barcelona in the Champions League.

Nice's Recent Form and Key Stats

Franck Haise’s Nice began the 2025/26 season with an immediate setback, losing 2-0 at home to Benfica. The French side often looked rushed in their finishing, wasting good chances through Moffi and frequently trying their luck from distance with Boudaoui. It was a bitter debut for new signings Bah—on loan from Manchester City—and Isak Jansson, signed from Rapid Vienna.

Les Aiglons ended last season with inconsistent performances away from the Allianz Riviera, though they did manage an impressive 3-1 win at champions Paris Saint-Germain. In their last 5 Ligue 1 away games of 2024/25, they recorded two wins, two defeats, and a draw, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match.

Prediction Benfica vs Nice and tactical overview

In the first leg, Benfica showed they are a mature side, capable of organized defending and dangerous in attack both from the flanks—like Ivanovic’s opening goal—and through the middle, as with Florentino’s strike that surprised Diouf.

In the return leg, the hosts will aim to keep possession and close the game out early, especially with their league opener against Estrela Amadora coming next weekend. Expect a proactive Benfica despite their two-goal lead.

Nice, for their part, will need to maintain the attacking approach they showed at home, but with more precision in front of Trubin if they want to reopen the qualification race. In midfield, Sanson’s condition will be monitored after his first-leg injury. If he is unavailable, Pablo Rosario is ready to step in.

This match is likely to be played openly between two offensively-minded sides, with the home team favorites to win. For this reason, the Benfica vs Nice prediction from BetMines leans towards a home win and Over 2.5 goals.

• Benfica vs Nice Prediction by BetMines: Benfica to win (1) – 56%
  
  
• Benfica vs Nice Prediction by BetMines: Over 2.5 goals – 52%

Probable lineups Benfica vs Nice

BENFICA (4-2-3-1): Trubin; Dedic, Silva, Otamendi, Dahl; Rios, Barrenechea; Aursnes, Ivanovic, Schjelderup; Pavlidis. Manager: Bruno Lage

NICE (3-4-3): Diouf; Mendy, Bah, Oppong; Clauss, Rosario, Boudaoui, Bard; Bouanani, Moffi, Boga. Manager: Franck Haise