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Prediction published on Sep 10, 2026 7:04 PM by Dario in Turkey - Super Lig | Modified on Sep 10, 2026 7:04 PM
Beşiktaş host Erzurumspor FK in the Turkish Super Lig on Friday, September 11, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 17:00 local time at Beşiktaş Stadium. The home side enter matchday five in second place and can temporarily move to the top with a victory, while the visitors begin the round in 15th. Beşiktaş have collected nine points from four league fixtures, recording three wins and one defeat, whereas Erzurumspor FK have four points following one win, one draw and two losses. Both teams secured victories on September 5, but their wider records provide a clear contrast: the Black Eagles have been particularly reliable at home, while Erzurumspor FK are still searching for greater consistency on their travels.
Beşiktaş return home after beating Fenerbahçe 2-1 away in their latest Super Lig fixture. That result completed a second consecutive victory and helped the hosts respond to two earlier defeats across the league and Europa League qualifiers. Their record from the last five matches in all competitions stands at three wins and two losses, with an average of 2.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
Their Super Lig numbers are similarly encouraging. Beşiktaş have won three of their opening four league matches, averaging 2.3 goals for and 1.0 against. Those figures highlight the attacking production that has driven their strong start, with the team scoring more than twice per match on average. A win on Friday would take them above the current leaders temporarily, adding further importance to a fixture in which the available probabilities make them clear favourites.
Home form is another major advantage for the Black Eagles. They have won each of their five competitive home matches this season, building a sequence that Erzurumspor FK must attempt to stop. Beşiktaş have also led at half-time in their last five home games. Their ability to avoid going into the interval behind is even more consistent: they have not lost at half-time in 20 of their previous 21 matches overall and in 20 of their last 22 home fixtures.
Erzurumspor FK arrive after earning their first win of the campaign, defeating Konyaspor 1-0 at home on September 5. That success gave the visitors a welcome lift after a difficult beginning to the season. They are back in the top flight following a five-season absence and have taken four points from their opening four Super Lig matches.
The broader form remains mixed, however. Erzurumspor FK have registered one victory, two draws and two defeats across their last five games. During that period they have averaged only 0.4 goals scored while conceding 1.6 per match. Their league averages are even more contrasting, with 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per fixture. These statistics present a demanding challenge against a Beşiktaş side averaging 2.3 league goals.
Away results are another concern for Erzurumspor FK. They have not won any of their last four competitive trips, drawing three and losing one. Nevertheless, their longer-term scoring data suggest they cannot be dismissed completely: they have scored at least once in 37 of their previous 40 matches. Their games also tend to produce action after the break, with at least one second-half goal occurring in each of their last 16 away matches and in 29 of their previous 31 fixtures overall.
The first-half pattern is more restrained. Erzurumspor FK have seen fewer than two goals before half-time in their last 11 away matches. That sequence contrasts with Beşiktaş having led at the interval in five consecutive home games, creating an interesting balance between the hosts’ strong starts and the visitors’ repeated low-scoring first halves.
The available form and statistical indicators place Beşiktaş in the stronger position. Their five consecutive competitive home victories, three wins from four league games and average of 2.3 Super Lig goals provide a solid platform. By comparison, Erzurumspor FK have yet to win away across their last four competitive trips and have conceded an average of two goals per league fixture this season.
The win probabilities reinforce that difference, assigning Beşiktaş a 67% chance of victory, compared with 22% for the draw and 11% for an Erzurumspor FK win. The visitors’ 1-0 success over Konyaspor gives them momentum, while their record of scoring in 37 of 40 matches shows that they have regularly found a route to goal. Even so, their recent attacking average of 0.4 goals and Beşiktaş’s strong home sequence leave the hosts with the more persuasive overall case.
Previous meetings have produced a balanced result record but plenty of goals. From the head-to-head summary, Beşiktaş have two wins, one draw and two defeats, averaging 2.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Five of the last six meetings in all competitions produced at least three goals, including four in succession, and the most recent encounter ended 4-2 on April 11, 2021. The current over 2.5-goal probability is narrowly set at 51%, while both teams to score is rated at 44% for Yes and 56% for No.
The match therefore brings together Beşiktaş’s productive attack and excellent home results against an Erzurumspor FK side that has just recorded its first league victory but remains winless in four competitive away matches. The home team’s league output, half-time record and recent 2-1 success at Fenerbahçe all support their status as favourites, although the visitors’ regular second-half goal trend means the contest may continue to develop after the interval.
Beşiktaş vs Erzurumspor FK prediction from BetMines: Beşiktaş win (1) with 67% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Beşiktaş
Erzurumspor FK
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
1
9
1.5
6
4
3
7
2.5
7
3
8
2
3.5
9
1
9
1
4.5
9
1
10
0