The Derby dell’Appennino returns to the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, where Bologna and Fiorentina will battle for crucial Serie A points on Sunday, January 18, 2026. The home side, led by Vincenzo Italiano, aims to build on their recent victory, while the visitors, coached by Paolo Vanoli, continue their fight to climb out of the relegation zone. With both teams showing contrasting trends in recent weeks, this encounter promises intensity, goals, and tactical intrigue.

Bologna’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Bologna finally ended their winless streak with a thrilling 3-2 victory over Hellas Verona on January 15, a result that lifted morale and reignited their European hopes. Before that, the Rossoblù had gone seven Serie A matches without a win, collecting only three points and suffering a Supercoppa defeat to Napoli. The win at the Bentegodi brought them within four points of the sixth place, and they now seek consecutive league victories for the first time since November.

According to the latest data, Bologna’s Serie A record stands at 8 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game. However, defensive consistency remains an issue, as they have conceded at least one goal in their last 13 matches. Despite that, their attacking rhythm has improved, with over 0.5 goals in the second half recorded in 22 of their last 24 league fixtures. At home, Bologna have been relatively solid, with only two of their last ten home games finishing with under 0.5 total goals.

In the last five matches, Bologna have registered 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, scoring an average of 1.2 goals per game while conceding 1.8. The recent win over Verona could mark a turning point, especially with key attackers like Riccardo Orsolini rediscovering form after ending a six-game goal drought. With the home crowd behind them and a strong record against Fiorentina at the Dall’Ara, Bologna enter this derby with renewed confidence.

Fiorentina’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Fiorentina have shown signs of recovery after a difficult start to the season. The Viola were denied back-to-back wins by a late equalizer in their 1-1 draw against AC Milan on January 11, following another 2-2 draw with Lazio. Despite sitting 18th in the Serie A table, they are only three points away from safety, having collected eight of their fourteen points in the last five matches. Their recent form includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeat, with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game.

Fiorentina’s away performances, however, remain a concern. They have earned only 2 points from their last seven away matches and are still searching for their first away win of the campaign. Nevertheless, they are currently unbeaten in three consecutive league games, showing improved resilience. Their matches tend to open up after the break, with over 0.5 goals in the second half recorded in each of their last ten Serie A fixtures, including all ten away games. Conversely, only two of their last ten away matches have ended with under 0.5 total goals, suggesting that goals are likely when Fiorentina play on the road.

With attacking options such as Moise Kean and Roberto Piccoli competing for a starting spot, Fiorentina will look to capitalize on Bologna’s defensive lapses. However, the absence of experienced figures like Edin Dzeko and Tariq Lamptey due to injuries could limit their attacking depth. The Viola’s challenge will be to maintain their recent momentum while addressing their away struggles, especially against a Bologna side that has beaten them in their last three visits to the Dall’Ara.

Bologna vs Fiorentina Analysis and Prediction

The Derby dell’Appennino has historically been a balanced contest, but recent head-to-head results favor Bologna. In their last five meetings, Bologna have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeat, scoring an average of 1.4 goals per match and conceding 1.0. The most recent encounter ended in a 2-2 draw on October 26, 2025, highlighting the attacking potential on both sides.

Given Bologna’s improved home form and Fiorentina’s ongoing away difficulties, the hosts appear slightly better positioned to claim the points. Bologna’s attacking trio, led by Orsolini and supported by forwards like Santiago Castro or Thijs Dallinga, could exploit Fiorentina’s defensive vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, Fiorentina’s recent scoring consistency suggests they are capable of finding the net, making a high-intensity, goal-filled match likely.

Statistically, Bologna’s home advantage and Fiorentina’s defensive fragility point toward a narrow home win. However, both teams have shown a tendency to concede, which could keep the game open until the final whistle. The Rossoblù will aim to match their historical streak of four consecutive home wins over Fiorentina, last achieved between 1963 and 1965, while the Viola will fight to end their winless away run.

Bologna vs Fiorentina prediction by BetMines:
Home Win (1) with 43% probability.