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Prediction published on Apr 5, 2025 8:52 AM by Dario in Italy - Serie A | Modified on Apr 8, 2025 2:16 PM
Serie A Gameweek 31 wraps up with the Monday night clash at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, as Bologna host Napoli in a high-stakes match between the league’s second and fourth-placed teams, separated by just 8 points. Despite losing key players like Joshua Zirkzee and Riccardo Calafiori last summer, Bologna are exceeding expectations this season. After finishing fifth last year and securing a historic qualification to the revamped UEFA Champions League, the Rossoblù are now even closer to sealing another top-four finish. Under Vincenzo Italiano, Bologna have found consistency and confidence, reaching the Coppa Italia semi-finals after a 3–0 first-leg win over Empoli and staying firmly in the UCL race. Much credit goes to Italiano for maximizing the potential of his most talented players—Riccardo Orsolini (13 goals), Jens Odgaard, Dan Ndoye, and Santiago Castro have all stepped up. Napoli, under Antonio Conte, are looking like a different team from the one that limped to a 10th-place finish last season after winning the Scudetto. With a strong summer transfer window and a renewed tactical identity, the Partenopei are back in the title race, challenging Inter Milan point for point.
Bologna come into this clash in top form, having won 6 consecutive matches across Serie A and the Coppa Italia. Impressively, they have kept clean sheets in their last three games, scoring 9 goals in the process.
Since the start of 2025, Italiano’s side has lost just 1 of their 17 matches in all competitions, registering 11 wins and 5 draws.
At home, Bologna are nearly unbeatable. They haven’t lost at the Dall’Ara since December 30 and are currently on a 7-game home winning streak. They've also scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 9 home fixtures.
Napoli kept pace with Inter at the top of the table thanks to a 2–1 win over AC Milan last weekend. That victory followed a 1–0 win over Fiorentina and a 2–2 draw with Venezia, marking three unbeaten matches in a row.
Conte’s side has collected 64 points from 30 matches (19 wins, 7 draws, 4 losses) and boasts the best defensive record in Serie A with just 24 goals conceded. However, their away form has been inconsistent—they haven’t won on the road since their January 18 victory over Atalanta.
Offensively, Napoli have scored only 47 goals in 30 games, nearly 20 fewer than league leaders Inter. Their efficiency in front of goal often comes from sharp counterattacks rather than sustained pressure.
Bologna haven't beaten Napoli at home since the 2018/19 season. They play an aggressive, attack-minded style under Italiano, which leads to plenty of goals scored—but also leaves gaps at the back. Among the current top six, Bologna have the weakest defense.
Napoli, on the other hand, thrive on defensive solidity and counter-attacking play. They tend to create fewer chances but are clinical when they do. With wingers like Matteo Politano and David Neres, they can exploit space quickly when Bologna push forward.
Given the contrast in styles, Bologna are likely to control possession, while Napoli will look to hit on the break. Bologna’s technically skilled but physically lighter midfield may struggle against Napoli’s more robust players like Alessandro Buongiorno and Zambo Anguissa.
This could be a tense, tactical battle rather than a goal fest: the BetMines algorithm prediction for Bologna vs Napoli predicts a match with under 2.5 total goals.
Bologna (4-2-3-1): Skorupski; Holm, Beukema, Lucumì, Miranda; Ferguson, Freuler; Orsolini, Odgaard, Ndoye; Castro. Manager: Italiano
Napoli (4-3-3): Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Buongiorno, Olivera; Anguissa, Lobotka, McTominay; Politano, Lukaku, Neres. Manager: Conte
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Bologna
Napoli
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
1
9
1.5
2
8
3
7
2.5
6
4
5
5
3.5
7
3
8
2
4.5
9
1
9
1