The Emilia-Romagna derby returns to the spotlight as Bologna host Parma at the Dall’Ara in the 24th round of Serie A. The home side are going through a turbulent period, struggling to find the consistency that defined their previous campaigns. After a heavy 0-3 defeat to AC Milan, the Rossoblù are desperate to bounce back and reignite their European hopes. Meanwhile, Parma arrive in Bologna looking to halt a negative run that has seen them slide closer to the relegation zone.

Bologna’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Bologna currently sit 10th in Serie A with 30 points, but their recent performances have been far from convincing. They have collected just one win in their last five matches (1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring an average of 1.6 goals per game while conceding 2.0. The 0-3 home loss to AC Milan exposed defensive frailties that have persisted since December, with the team losing seven of their last eleven league fixtures.

At home, Bologna’s struggles are even more evident. They have lost their last three matches at the Dall’Ara and have been behind at half time in each of those games. In fact, they have lost at half time in their last four home fixtures overall. Despite these setbacks, Bologna’s attack remains lively — Over 1.5 goals have been scored in each of their last 12 matches, and there has been at least one goal in the second half in 25 of their last 27 Serie A games.

Historically, Bologna have dominated this fixture. They are unbeaten in their last six home meetings with Parma and have won three of the last five head-to-heads overall, averaging 1.6 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded. The last encounter ended 2-1 in favor of Bologna on December 4, 2025, confirming their recent superiority in this regional rivalry.

Parma’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Parma enter this match in 15th place, with 23 points from 23 games. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with one win, two draws, and two defeats in their last five outings. The 1-4 loss to Juventus highlighted their defensive vulnerabilities, while their attack continues to struggle, averaging just 0.6 goals per match over the same period. Over the season, Parma have recorded 5 wins, 8 draws, and 10 defeats, scoring 0.7 goals per game and conceding 1.3.

On the road, Parma have found it difficult to impose themselves. They have failed to win at half time in 25 of their last 27 Serie A matches, and several of their away games have been low-scoring affairs — Under 0.5 goals have been recorded in 5 of their last 16 away fixtures. The Gialloblù have also lost their last two league matches, against Atalanta and Juventus, and will be eager to avoid a third consecutive defeat, something that has not happened since early 2025.

Despite their struggles, Parma can take some encouragement from their fighting spirit in recent derbies. However, their record against top-half teams is poor, with only four points collected from twelve matches against sides currently in the top ten. This lack of cutting edge against stronger opponents could once again prove costly at the Dall’Ara.

Head-to-Head and Tactical Overview

The rivalry between Bologna and Parma has always been intense, and this edition promises to be no different. Bologna’s attacking duo of Orsolini and Castro will look to rediscover their scoring touch, while Parma rely heavily on Pellegrino, who has netted six times this season. Interestingly, Castro’s only multi-goal performance in Serie A came against Parma earlier this campaign, a reminder of his potential to be decisive once again.

From a tactical standpoint, Bologna’s 4-2-3-1 setup emphasizes width and quick transitions, but their defensive line has been exposed too often in recent weeks. Parma, on the other hand, tend to adopt a more cautious approach, focusing on compactness and counterattacks. Given both teams’ current form, a balanced and open game could unfold, with chances at both ends.

Statistically, Bologna’s matches have been entertaining, with goals in both halves almost guaranteed. Parma’s away games, however, often feature fewer goals, suggesting that the outcome could hinge on which side manages to impose its rhythm early on. The home advantage and historical dominance tilt the balance slightly in Bologna’s favor, but Parma’s resilience cannot be underestimated.

Probable Lineups Bologna vs Parma

BOLOGNA (4-2-3-1): Skorupski; Zortea, Lucumì, Heggem, Miranda; Freuler, Ferguson; Orsolini, Odgaard, Rowe; Castro.
PARMA (4-3-2-1): Corvi; Delprato, Circati, Troilo, Valeri; Bernabé, Keita, Nicolussi Caviglia; Strefezza, Ondrejka; Pellegrino.

Bologna vs Parma Prediction and Final Analysis

Everything points to a tight and competitive derby. Bologna’s need to recover form and their strong record at home against Parma make them slight favorites. The visitors’ lack of attacking efficiency and poor results against top-half teams further strengthen Bologna’s case. However, given both sides’ defensive issues, goals are likely to feature in this encounter.

According to the latest data, Bologna have a 53% probability of winning, while the draw stands at 26% and Parma’s chances are estimated at 21%. The Both Teams To Score – No option has a 54% likelihood, and Under 2.5 goals is slightly favored at 54% as well. Still, considering Bologna’s recent goal-rich matches, the Over 2.5 line remains a tempting alternative.

Bologna vs Parma prediction by BetMines:
Home Win (1) with 53% probability.