The Europa League round of 16 brings an exciting all-Italian clash as Bologna host Roma at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara. Both sides have impressed in Europe this season and will be eager to take a first-leg advantage before the return fixture in Rome. Bologna are enjoying a strong continental campaign, while Roma’s pedigree in this competition makes them one of the favorites to go deep once again. With both teams coming off domestic defeats, this encounter promises intensity, tactical discipline, and a battle for control in midfield.

Bologna’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Bologna enter this match after a narrow 1-2 home defeat to Hellas Verona on March 8, a result that ended a four-match winning streak across all competitions. Despite that setback, their recent form remains impressive, with four wins in their last five outings. Defensively, they have been solid, conceding just 0.4 goals per game on average during that run, while scoring one goal per match. Their Europa League campaign has been particularly consistent, boasting a record of six wins, three draws, and only one defeat, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game.

At home, Bologna have been difficult to beat in Europe this season, remaining unbeaten with two wins and three draws. However, their overall home form has dipped recently, with only two victories in their last ten matches at the Dall’Ara across all competitions. Still, they can take confidence from their recent head-to-head record against Roma, remaining unbeaten in the last four home meetings (two wins and two draws). Historically, Bologna have also shown a tendency for low-scoring affairs, with under 3.5 goals recorded in each of their last ten matches. Moreover, over 0.5 goals in the second half have been scored in 20 of their last 22 games, suggesting that their matches often come to life after the break.

• Europa League record: W6 · D3 · L1


• Average goals scored: 1.6 · Average conceded: 0.7


• Unbeaten in last 4 home games vs Roma (W2 D2)


• Under 3.5 goals in last 10 matches


• Over 0.5 goals in second half in 20 of last 22 matches

In terms of personnel, Bologna have relied on Riccardo Orsolini and Federico Bernardeschi for goals in Europe, both netting three times in the competition. The absence of Juan Miranda and Torbjorn Heggem could slightly weaken their defensive options, but the team’s structure under Vincenzo Italiano has remained compact and disciplined. The hosts will look to maintain their strong European home record and capitalize on Roma’s recent struggles away from home.

Roma’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Roma travel to Bologna after a 2-1 defeat to Genoa on March 8, which ended their four-match unbeaten streak in Serie A. Despite that loss, their attacking numbers remain strong, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded across their last five matches. In the Europa League, Roma have been efficient, winning five, drawing one, and losing two, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Their ability to perform on the road in Europe has been notable, collecting ten points from four away fixtures (three wins and one draw) during the League Phase.

However, Roma’s recent domestic away form has been less convincing, as they are winless in their last four away matches in all competitions (two draws and two defeats). A key trend in their games is the lack of early goals: at least one team failed to score at half time in 36 of their last 38 matches, including 37 of their last 40 in the Europa League. This pattern suggests that Roma often grow into matches rather than dominating from the start.

• Europa League record: W5 · D1 · L2


• Average goals scored: 1.6 · Average conceded: 0.8


• Over 0.5 goals in second half in last 13 matches


• At least one team failed to score at half time in 36 of last 38 matches


• Winless in last 4 away games in all competitions

Roma’s attacking hopes will rest heavily on Donyell Malen, who has been in sensational form since joining on loan, scoring six goals in eight league appearances. His pace and finishing ability could be decisive in this tie, especially against a Bologna defense that has shown occasional lapses at home. The visitors will, however, be without several key players through injury, including Paulo Dybala, Matias Soule, Artem Dovbyk, and Evan Ferguson. Additionally, Gianluca Mancini is suspended, which may force a reshuffle in defense. Despite these absences, Roma’s European experience and attacking depth make them a dangerous opponent.

Bologna vs Roma Tactical Overview and Prediction

This first leg promises to be a tight and tactical affair. Bologna’s disciplined defensive structure and strong home record in Europe will be tested by Roma’s dynamic attack led by Malen. The hosts have shown resilience, keeping clean sheets in four of their last five matches, while Roma’s tendency to start slowly could make the first half cagey. Given both teams’ recent trends, a low-scoring match seems likely, with the second half potentially providing more action.

Historically, Bologna have had the upper hand in recent meetings, winning three of the last five encounters and conceding just over one goal per game on average. Roma, meanwhile, have not won at this venue since December 2020, which could weigh on their confidence. Both sides will be aware of the importance of avoiding mistakes in the first leg, and the balance between Bologna’s defensive discipline and Roma’s attacking flair will define the outcome.

Bologna vs Roma prediction by BetMines:
Under 2.5 goals with 57% probability.