On Saturday, November 22, 2025, at 19:30, Botafogo and Grêmio will face off in a crucial Brasileirão Série A encounter. The hosts from Rio de Janeiro are chasing a spot in next season’s Copa Libertadores, while the visitors from Porto Alegre are still looking to secure enough points to avoid relegation. With both sides having plenty at stake, this match at the Estádio Nilton Santos promises intensity and drama until the final whistle.

Botafogo’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Botafogo enter this fixture in solid form, having gone unbeaten in their last five matches with two wins and three draws. Their most recent outing was a thrilling 3-2 victory over Sport Recife on November 18. Over that stretch, the team has averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, showing a balanced approach between attack and defense. Throughout the season, the Cariocas have recorded 15 wins, 10 draws, and 9 defeats, maintaining an average of 1.4 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match.

At home, Botafogo have been particularly strong. They have scored in the first half in most of their recent home games, with Over 0.5 goals at half time occurring in 18 of their last 20 matches at the Nilton Santos. Moreover, they have led at the break in 13 of those 20 home fixtures, underlining their ability to start matches strongly. Defensively, they have also been consistent, with at least one team failing to score in the second half in 31 of their last 33 matches — a sign of their disciplined structure after the interval.

Despite not replicating the dominance that saw them lift trophies in previous seasons, Davide Ancelotti’s men remain competitive. The coach will have to deal with several absences, including Bastos, Kaio Pantaleão, Matheus Martins, Nathan Fernandes, and Neto, all sidelined through injury. Alex Telles is suspended, while Ramos remains doubtful. Even so, the likely lineup could feature Léo Linck in goal, with Vitinho, Alexander Barboza, David Ricardo, and Cuiabano forming the back line. In midfield, Marlon Freitas and Danilo should anchor the play, while Artur, Jefferson Savarino, and Jeffinho support striker Arthur Cabral up front.

Grêmio’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Grêmio approach this match after a confidence-boosting 2-0 win over Vasco da Gama on November 20. That result helped them climb to 11th in the table, but their campaign has been inconsistent overall. In their last five outings, the Tricolor Gaúcho have registered two wins, one draw, and two defeats, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Over the season, their record stands at 10 wins, 10 draws, and 13 losses, with averages of 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded.

One major concern for Mano Menezes’ side is their defensive vulnerability away from home. The team has conceded at least one goal in each of their last 13 away matches, including the last 12 in the league. This trend highlights their struggles to maintain clean sheets on the road. Despite that, Grêmio’s attack remains capable of producing moments of quality, especially through players like Franco Cristaldo and Arthur Melo, who provide creativity and control in midfield.

However, injuries and suspensions continue to limit Menezes’ options. Balbuena, Braithwaite, João Pedro, Olivera, Rodrigo Ely, Villasanti, and Willian are all unavailable due to injuries, while Pavón and Wagner Leonardo serve suspensions. Additionally, Aravena, Marcos Rocha, Monsalve, and Noriega are doubtful. The coach may rely on Tiago Volpi between the posts, with João Lucas, Kanneman, Marlon, and Gustavo Martins in defense. In midfield, Arthur Melo, Franco Cristaldo, and Dodi are expected to start, while Carlos Vinícius, Francis Amuzu, and Alysson could lead the attack.

Botafogo vs Grêmio: Match Analysis and Prediction

This clash brings together two sides with contrasting ambitions but similar urgency. Botafogo are pushing for a Libertadores berth and will look to capitalize on home advantage, while Grêmio aim to secure safety and possibly climb into the top half of the table. The head-to-head record slightly favors the hosts, with two wins, two draws, and one defeat in their last five meetings, including a 1-1 draw earlier this season on September 24.

Both teams have shown defensive fragility at times, suggesting that goals could come from either side. However, Botafogo’s superior home form and Grêmio’s poor away record tilt the balance toward the Cariocas. The hosts’ ability to control games early and maintain composure in the second half could prove decisive. Expect a competitive match, but one where Botafogo’s attacking depth and home support make the difference.

Probable Lineups Botafogo vs Grêmio

Botafogo (4-2-3-1): Léo Linck; Vitinho, Alexander Barboza, David Ricardo, Cuiabano; Marlon Freitas, Danilo; Artur, Jefferson Savarino, Jeffinho; Arthur Cabral. Coach: Davide Ancelotti

Grêmio (4-3-3): Tiago Volpi; João Lucas, Kanneman, Marlon, Gustavo Martins; Arthur Melo, Franco Cristaldo, Dodi; Carlos Vinícius, Francis Amuzu, Alysson. Coach: Mano Menezes

Botafogo vs Grêmio prediction by BetMines:
The most likely outcome is a Botafogo win (1) with a 60% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 24%, while a Grêmio win (2) stands at 16%.