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Prediction published on Feb 17, 2026 6:01 PM by Dario in Europe - Europa League | Modified on Feb 17, 2026 6:01 PM
The Europa League Knockout Phase playoff begins in Bergen, where SK Brann host Bologna in the first leg of a two-match tie that promises intensity and ambition. The Norwegian side, nicknamed the Pride of Bergen, return to continental competition after a long absence, while the Italian visitors arrive with renewed confidence following their domestic and European resurgence. The winner of this clash will advance to face either Roma or Freiburg in the Round of 16, adding extra motivation for both teams to start strong in this opening encounter.
Brann have enjoyed a remarkable rise in recent seasons, climbing from Norway’s second division to the Europa League stage. Their group campaign ended with a narrow 1-0 defeat to Sturm Graz on January 29, but they still managed to secure qualification thanks to a superior goal difference over Young Boys. That result, however, extended their winless streak in the competition to five matches (three draws and two losses), underlining the need for improvement as they return to action after a long winter break.
According to the latest data, Brann’s overall Europa League record this season stands at five wins, three draws and four defeats, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match. Their home form has been relatively solid, with seven points collected from four games in the League Phase (two wins, one draw, one loss). The only setback at Brann Stadion came against Fenerbahce, while their most recent head-to-head with Bologna ended in a goalless draw on November 6, 2025.
In their last five matches across all competitions, Brann have recorded one win, two draws and two defeats, scoring an average of 1.4 goals per game but conceding two. They have also shown strength in the early stages of matches, leading at half time in six of their last ten home fixtures. However, the absence of key players such as Sakarias Opsahl, Jonas Torsvik, Niklas Castro and Saevar Atli Magnusson could limit their attacking options. With Emil Kornvig having left the club during the winter transfer window, the hosts will look for new heroes to step up in this crucial European night.
Bologna arrive in Norway after a 2-1 away victory over Torino on February 15, a result that boosted morale following a mixed domestic run. In their last five matches, the Italian side have collected two wins, one draw and two defeats, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Their Europa League campaign has been more consistent, with four wins, three draws and one loss, producing an average of 1.8 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match.
The Red and Blues have been particularly effective on the road in Europe, winning their last three away games and scoring at least two goals in each. Their only defeat away from home came against Aston Villa on Matchday 1. Bologna’s attacking rhythm has been steady, with Over 1.5 goals scored in each of their last fifteen away matches and at least one goal conceded in twenty of their last twenty-one games. Moreover, goals tend to arrive after the break, as Over 0.5 goals in the second half have been recorded in fourteen consecutive matches.
Despite their strong European record, Bologna’s overall form has shown some inconsistency, with only three wins in their last fourteen matches across all competitions. The team will be without defenders Eivind Helland and Lorenzo De Silvestri, both excluded from the knockout squad, while Charalampos Lykogiannis and Torbjorn Heggem remain sidelined through injury. Nevertheless, Riccardo Orsolini, the club’s joint top scorer in the competition with three goals, is expected to play a key role in attack as Bologna aim to take control of the tie before the return leg in Italy.
This first leg promises to be a fascinating tactical battle between two sides with contrasting rhythms. Brann will rely on their home advantage and passionate support to compensate for their lack of recent competitive action, while Bologna will look to impose their technical superiority and European experience. The previous meeting between these teams ended 0-0, but circumstances were different then, with Bologna playing over an hour with ten men. This time, both sides are expected to adopt a more open approach, especially given their recent scoring patterns.
Statistically, the numbers point towards a lively encounter. Four of Brann’s last six competitive matches have produced Over 2.5 goals, while eight of Bologna’s last nine games across all competitions have also seen three or more goals. Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, and with Bologna conceding in nearly every recent match, the likelihood of both sides finding the net appears high. The Norwegian side’s attacking enthusiasm combined with Bologna’s offensive consistency could make this one of the most entertaining fixtures of the playoff round.
SK Brann vs Bologna prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 56% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Brann
Bologna
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
1
9
1.5
1
9
2
8
2.5
2
8
6
4
3.5
5
5
7
3
4.5
8
2
9
1