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Prediction published on Feb 9, 2025 10:15 AM by Dario in Europe - Champions League | Modified on Feb 9, 2025 10:43 AM
After delighting football fans with a thrilling new format full of exciting and unpredictable matches, the UEFA Champions League is set to heat up with the start of the playoffs. The winning teams from these home-and-away fixtures will secure a spot in the Round of 16. Among the key matches scheduled for Tuesday, one that stands out is the first-ever Champions League derby between Brest and Paris Saint Germain. These two teams are no strangers to each other, having already faced off twice in Ligue 1 this season. On both occasions, PSG secured dominant victories. This comes as no surprise, as the Parisian side, living up to preseason predictions, appears to have no real competition in Ligue 1 and is well on its way to securing its 13th French league title. Luis Enrique's squad, fresh off the coach’s contract renewal, dreams of bringing the Champions League trophy to the banks of the Seine for the first time. However, to keep that dream alive, they must first overcome Brest. Eric Roy’s team, which finished the Champions League single-group phase with the same points as PSG, will do everything possible to give their fans an unforgettable night and perhaps pull off an upset against their Parisian rivals.
Brest comes into this match riding a two-game winning streak, having recently defeated Nantes in Ligue 1 (keeping them in the race for a European spot) and Troyes in the Coupe de France. Over their last five matches across all competitions, Brest has won three and lost two, including a 5-2 home defeat to PSG in Ligue 1.
In the Champions League group stage, Brest finished 18th overall with a record of four wins, three losses, and one draw. Across those eight games, Roy’s squad averaged 1.25 goals per match while conceding 1.38. Their top scorer this season is French forward Ludovic Ajorque, who has netted 10 goals so far.
In their most recent Ligue 1 match, PSG comfortably defeated Monaco 4-1, extending their unbeaten run across all competitions to 16 matches. Among the goal scorers was former Napoli star Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who wasted no time in opening his account with his new club. Thanks to their win over Monaco, PSG further cemented their position at the top of the Ligue 1 standings.
Despite their dominance in Ligue 1, PSG struggled significantly in the Champions League group stage. After collecting only four points in their first five games, the Parisians managed to turn things around with three consecutive wins against Stuttgart, Manchester City, and Salzburg to secure their place in the playoffs.
The last meeting between these two teams on February 1st saw PSG cruise to a 5-2 away victory, with Ousmane Dembélé scoring a hat-trick and Gonçalo Ramos adding a brace. Looking at the last five head-to-head encounters, PSG has won four, while Brest has yet to secure a victory, with one match ending in a draw.
Interestingly, both teams have scored in each of their recent meetings, with all games featuring at least two goals. Based on these stats, the BetMines algorithm predicts a high-scoring affair, with over 2.5 goals expected in this matchup.
Brest (4-2-3-1): Bizot; Lala, Chardonnet, N’Diaye, Zogbé; Camara, Lees Melou; Del Castillo, Faivre, Sima; Ajorque. Coach: Roy.
Paris Saint Germain (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Nuno Mendes; Lee Kang-In, Vitinha, Fabian Ruiz; Barcola, Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia. Coach: Enrique.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Brest
Paris Saint Germain
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
2
8
1
9
2.5
5
5
4
6
3.5
7
3
8
2
4.5
8
2
9
1