The FA Cup third round brings an intriguing clash as Burnley host Millwall at Turf Moor. It will be the first time in five years that these two sides meet in the competition, and both will be eager to progress to the next stage. Burnley, struggling in the Premier League, will view this as a chance to regain confidence, while Millwall arrive from the Championship with momentum and belief after a solid run of results.

Burnley’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Burnley have endured a difficult campaign, going winless in their last 12 matches across all competitions. Despite this, their recent 2-2 draw against Manchester United on January 7, 2026, showed signs of improvement and fighting spirit. Over their last five fixtures, the Clarets have recorded three draws and two defeats, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Their inability to maintain leads has been a recurring issue, as they have lost at half time in six of their last ten home matches.

At Turf Moor, Burnley’s performances have been inconsistent, but the FA Cup could offer a fresh start. Historically, they have enjoyed success against Millwall, winning three of their last five head-to-head encounters and scoring an average of 1.6 goals per match while conceding just 0.6. Their last meeting ended in a 3-1 victory on May 3, 2025, a result that will give them confidence heading into this tie.

Millwall’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Millwall enter this fixture in better shape, unbeaten in their last four matches and coming off a 2-1 home win against Swansea City on January 4, 2026. Over their last five games, they have registered two wins, two draws, and one defeat, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match. Their defensive discipline has been a key factor in this run, though their away form remains a concern, as they are winless in three consecutive away games and have failed to score in the last two.

In the FA Cup, Millwall’s matches have been relatively open, with over 1.5 goals scored in each of their last ten fixtures. However, they have also experienced low-scoring encounters, with under 0.5 goals in two of those ten. Their record against Burnley is less encouraging, with only one win in the last five meetings, but their current momentum could make them a tricky opponent.

Head-to-Head and Tactical Overview

Historically, this fixture has favored Burnley, who have dominated recent meetings both home and away. The Clarets’ home advantage and higher league status suggest they will control possession and look to break down Millwall’s compact defensive setup. However, given Burnley’s recent struggles in front of goal and Millwall’s organized approach, this could turn into a tight and low-scoring contest.

Millwall’s recent unbeaten streak will give them confidence, but their lack of goals on the road could prove costly. Burnley, meanwhile, will aim to capitalize on their superior quality and experience, especially after showing resilience against a top-flight opponent in their last outing. Both sides have averaged fewer than one goal per game recently, reinforcing the likelihood of a cautious affair decided by fine margins.

Burnley vs Millwall Prediction and Betting Insight

Based on recent performances and head-to-head history, this FA Cup tie is expected to be competitive but not high-scoring. Burnley’s home advantage and attacking potential should give them the edge, though Millwall’s defensive solidity could keep the scoreline close. The most probable scenario points toward a Burnley win with under 2.5 total goals.

According to the latest probabilities, Burnley have a 28% chance of winning, the draw stands at 25%, and Millwall are given a 47% chance of victory. The Both Teams To Score market is evenly balanced at 50% Yes / 50% No, while the Over/Under 2.5 goals line is also split at 50% each. These figures highlight how finely poised the match could be, with small details likely to determine the outcome.

Burnley vs Millwall prediction by BetMines:
Burnley win (1) with 28% probability.