Burnley begin their 2026-27 Carabao Cup campaign against Notts County at Turf Moor on Saturday afternoon, August 8, 2026. Both teams approach the tie after difficult pre-season periods, making this an important early opportunity to produce a more convincing performance. Burnley failed to win any of their six warm-up matches, while Notts County followed an emphatic opening victory with four games without a win. The Carabao Cup ranking lists Burnley as number one and Notts County as number two, but the recent figures point to a competitive contest between two sides searching for greater consistency. Burnley will hope that playing at home can help them end a prolonged run without a victory, whereas the visitors arrive after securing promotion to EFL League One through last season’s League Two playoff.

Burnley Recent Form and Key Statistics

Burnley are attempting to recover from a disappointing 2025-26 campaign in which they finished second-last in the top flight. They collected 22 points from 38 matches and suffered relegation, leaving the squad with a significant rebuilding task as the new season begins. Their pre-season results did little to provide immediate encouragement. The Clarets recorded three draws and three defeats across six fixtures, conceding 13 goals and failing to claim a single victory.
Their latest match ended in a 1-0 defeat against Torino on August 2. Across Burnley’s last five games, they have registered no wins, two draws and three losses, scoring an average of 1.0 goals and conceding 2.0 per match. Those numbers underline the imbalance between their attacking output and defensive record during this recent sequence.
The broader trends are also concerning. Burnley have failed to win 29 of their last 31 matches, while at least one goal has been conceded by the Clarets in 21 of their previous 22 fixtures. The source article also records an active 19-match winless run across all competitions, dating back to a 3-2 success over Crystal Palace in early February. Ending that sequence will therefore be one of the central objectives when their Carabao Cup campaign gets underway.
There has regularly been first-half action in Burnley’s matches. At least one goal before the interval was recorded in 20 of their last 22 games and in 18 of their previous 20 home fixtures. Burnley have also been behind at half time in eight of their last 12 matches. A more controlled opening period could be essential, especially after a pre-season in which defensive difficulties repeatedly placed them under pressure.

Notts County Recent Form and Key Statistics

Notts County enter the competition after earning promotion to EFL League One following an 11-year absence. The Magpies secured that achievement by defeating Salford City 3-2 in the League Two playoff at Wembley last season. That result provided a memorable conclusion to their campaign, although their subsequent pre-season form was less convincing.
The visitors began their preparations with a commanding 5-0 victory over Alfreton. They were unable to maintain that momentum, losing three and drawing one of their next four matches. Notts County failed to score in three games during that four-match winless sequence, highlighting the attacking inconsistency that developed after their strong start to pre-season.
Their latest outing was a 0-0 draw with Walsall on August 1. Over the last five matches, Notts County have produced one win, one draw and three defeats. They averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game during that period, giving them a slightly better recent scoring and defensive average than their hosts, although both teams have lost three of their last five fixtures.
Notts County’s away record across their last 10 matches in all competitions stands at four victories, one draw and five defeats. Their games on the road have frequently featured second-half scoring: at least one goal after the break has been recorded in 19 of their previous 20 away fixtures. The same pattern occurred in 18 of their last 20 matches overall. However, the Magpies have not beaten Burnley away from home since 1995, so this trip represents a challenging test despite the hosts’ poor sequence.

Burnley vs Notts County Match Analysis

The recent results leave both teams with clear issues to address. Burnley carry home advantage but have been unable to turn performances into victories for an extended period. Their record of conceding in 21 of the last 22 matches adds to the concern, while three defeats and two draws from the most recent five fixtures show that the downturn continued throughout pre-season. The fact that Burnley have often conceded first-half goals also increases the importance of a disciplined start.
Notts County can take encouragement from last season’s playoff success and their 5-0 pre-season win over Alfreton. Nevertheless, three defeats in their next four matches and three failures to score during that run suggest that the visitors have their own problems in the final third. Their 0-0 draw against Walsall at least brought a clean sheet immediately before this cup tie, but their wider away record remains mixed, with five losses in 10 games.
The available statistical percentages indicate a finely balanced contest. Notts County are assigned a 40% win chance, compared with 37% for Burnley and 24% for the draw. The goals data provides another angle: Both Teams To Score – Yes is listed at 54%, while Over 2.5 goals also stands at 54%. These figures sit alongside contrasting trends, including Burnley’s persistent defensive vulnerability, Notts County’s recent scoreless matches and the visitors’ strong pattern of second-half goals.
Burnley’s need to stop their winless sequence should create urgency, but their recent form offers little room for complacency. Notts County have also struggled for positive results since their opening pre-season victory, so neither side arrives with sustained momentum. The balance between Burnley’s home setting and Notts County’s promotion boost makes this Carabao Cup meeting difficult to separate, with the timing of the opening goal potentially decisive. Burnley must improve defensively and avoid another slow start, while Notts County will need to rediscover the attacking sharpness shown against Alfreton if they are to overcome their long wait for an away victory in this fixture.