The Coppa Italia second round brings an intriguing clash at the Unipol Domus as Cagliari host Frosinone on Tuesday, September 23, 2025. With a place in the round of 16 at stake and a potential meeting with Napoli awaiting the winner, both sides will be eager to progress. The Sardinians come into this tie as the Serie A representatives, while the Canaries arrive from Serie B looking to cause an upset. Recent form and historical performances in the competition suggest a tight contest, but Cagliari’s top-flight experience could prove decisive.

Cagliari’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Cagliari approach this fixture on the back of a morale-boosting 2-1 away win at Lecce in Serie A on September 19. That result marked their second consecutive victory in the league and highlighted their growing momentum after a mixed start to the season. In their last five matches across all competitions, the Sardinians have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeat, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Their defensive stability has been a key factor, with under 3.5 goals scored in each of their last 10 home fixtures, underlining their preference for controlled, low-scoring encounters.

In the Coppa Italia, Cagliari needed penalties to overcome Virtus Entella in the previous round, showing resilience under pressure. Historically, they have been consistent in this competition, reaching the round of 16 in six of their last seven campaigns. Another notable trend is their ability to produce goals in the second half, with over 0.5 goals scored after the break in each of their last 11 matches. This suggests that patience and late-game efficiency could once again be crucial for Claudio Ranieri’s men.

Frosinone’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Frosinone arrive in Sardinia unbeaten in their last five competitive fixtures, with 3 wins and 2 draws. Their most recent outing was a 2-2 draw against Südtirol in Serie B on September 19, a result that extended their strong start to the season. Defensively, the Canaries have been impressive, conceding just 0.4 goals per game on average across their last five matches and keeping four clean sheets in that period. In the Coppa Italia, they advanced past Monza with a narrow 1-0 win, showing their ability to grind out results in knockout football.

Despite their solid form, Frosinone’s record in this competition has been inconsistent. They have exited in the first round in three of their last four campaigns, though they did manage a quarter-final run in the other. Away from home, their matches tend to be tight affairs: under 3.5 goals have been scored in each of their last 13 away games, while under 1.5 goals at half time has been a recurring theme in the same period. Another striking trend is that at least one team has failed to score before the break in each of their last 21 away fixtures, suggesting a cautious approach early on.

Cagliari vs Frosinone Prediction and Tactical Overview

When these two sides meet, history suggests a balanced contest. Their last head-to-head encounter in January 2024 ended in a 3-1 win for Cagliari, but overall the record is fairly even with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeat for the Sardinians in their last five meetings. Both teams average 1.6 goals scored and conceded in these clashes, pointing towards competitive matchups with goals at both ends.

Cagliari’s home advantage and Serie A pedigree make them slight favorites, but Frosinone’s defensive solidity and unbeaten run cannot be overlooked. The Canaries have shown they can frustrate opponents, particularly in the first half, while Cagliari’s tendency to grow into games could set up a scenario where the breakthrough comes after the interval. With Napoli awaiting in the next round, both sides will be motivated, but the hosts’ experience at this level may ultimately tilt the balance in their favor.

Cagliari vs Frosinone prediction by BetMines:
The statistical analysis points towards Under 2.5 goals with 54% probability, compared to 46% for Over 2.5. This aligns with both teams’ recent trends of low-scoring matches, especially in Frosinone’s away fixtures and Cagliari’s home games.